Consumer credit is weak in nominal terms and negative in real terms.
 

Nominal Consumer Credit, Data from the Fed, Chart by Mish
 

Nominal consumer credit has started to flatline. In real terms, credit is declining.

Real Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
 

Real Consumer Credit Data from the Fed, Calculation and Chart by Mish
 

Government credit is primarily student loans.

Note that real nonrevolving credit excluding government is 1.726 trillion, down from 1.824 trillion on August of 2021.

In real terms, people are paying off mortgages etc., faster than they are taking mortgages on new mortgages.

Consumer Credit Monthly Change
 

Consumer Credit Change Details

• Total: +0.36 Billion
• Nonrevolving: +6.32 Billion
• Nonrevolving Excluding Government: -5.30 Billion
• Revolving: -5.96 Billion

Revolving Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
 

Revolving Consumer Credit Data from the Fed, Real Calculation and Chart by Mish
 

Revolving Credit Details

• Real revolving credit peaked at the start of the Great Recession at 1.148 trillion.
• The post-Covid real revolving peak was 1.085 trillion.
• Real revolving credit is now 1.026 trillion.
• In nominal terms, revolving credit peaked in November of 2024 at 1.350 trillion.

Revolving Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars Detail
 

Revolving Consumer Credit Data from the Fed, Real Calculation and Chart by Mish
 

Real Consumer Credit Detail Percent Change from Year Ago
 

Real Consumer Credit Detail Percent Change from Year
 

Real Percent Change from Year Ago Details

• Total: -2.5 percent
• Nonrevolving: -1.6 percent
• Nonrevolving Excluding Government: -3.3 percent
• Revolving: -5.1 percent

These are very weak recession-looking numbers.

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