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Annual wages from ADP, Real Calculation by Mish

ADP^® Pay Insights

Last week, ADP released Pay Insights for September 2025.

ADP only reports nominal wages. My lead chart shows nominal and real wages, adjusted by the PCE Price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

ADP data starts with November 2020. Real wages peaked in May of 2025.

Median and Real PCE-Adjusted Wages Percent Change Since 2021-05

• Male Nominal: +6.6 percent to 69,200.
• Male Real: -9.4 percent to 54,366.
• Female Nominal: +7.3 percent to 51,400.
• Female Real: -8.8 percent to 40,382.

Data and calculations through August. ADP provided nominal data through September, but we do not have price indexes for September.

Due to the government shutdown, I do not know when we will have them.

Adjusted using a CPI deflator makes things look worse.

Median and Real CPI-Adjusted Wages

(Click on image to enlarge)

Annual wages from ADP, Real Calculation by Mish

Median and Real CPI-Adjusted Wages Percent Change Since 2021-05

• Male Nominal: +6.6 percent to 69,200.
• Male Real: -11.5 percent to 52.134.
• Female Nominal: +7.3 percent to 51,400.
• Female Real: -10.1 percent to 39,099.

Real Wage Synopsis Since May 2021

• CPI-Adjusted Male: -11.5 percent
• PCE-Adjusted Male: -9.4 percent
• CPI-Adjusted Female: -10.1 percent
• PCE-Adjusted Female: -8.8 percent

Trump campaigned on curing inflation.

Since January 2025, CPI-adjusted pay is down 1.7 percent for men and is unchanged for women.

Since January 2025, PCE-adjusted pay is down 1.9 percent for men and is down 1.1 percent for women.

Presumptions

These numbers presume you believe PCE and CPI measures of inflation are accurate.

I don’t. Do you?

Neither the CPI nor the PCE includes property taxes, or homeowners’ insurance in their measures.

Both include content insurance if your house burns down or is ripped up by a hurricane, but neither includes the house itself.

And when eating out, tips are not included. Heck that’s an expected 20 percent of the bill.

Is Homeowners Insurance Understated in the CPI?

I discussed homeowners insurance on August 11, 2025 in Is Homeowners Insurance Understated in the CPI? Shop Around!

Our Insurance went up by $2,000. Then another $2,000. Here’s our story.

Also consider Where Do You Spend Money on Food? How Screwed Up Are the BLS Weights?

Does the BLS match your budget?

Don’t worry, Trump says “There is virtually no inflation.”

Nonetheless, he has changed his message: Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”

“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.

Forgive me for pointing out Trump’s math is worse than BLS math.

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