Discrepancies between ADP and the BLS are vast. Let’s start with the BLS.
 

BLS Nominal Weekly Earnings, Chart by Mish

Nominal Percentage Changes Since 1979

• Nominal Total: 419.8 percent
• Nominal Male: 372.7 percent
• Nominal Female: 528.7 percent

BLS nominal weekly earnings come from the BLS Household Survey. People tell the BLS what they make in a pay period, and the BLS adjusts that to a weekly value.

The BLS Explains. Also see Weekly and Hourly Earnings from the Current Population Survey

The earnings data are collected from one-quarter of the Current Population Survey CPS monthly sample and are limited to wage and salary workers. All self-employed workers are excluded. Most series pertain to workers who usually work full time on their sole or primary job.

Usual weekly earnings represent earnings before taxes and other deductions and include any overtime pay, commissions, or tips usually received (at the main job in the case of multiple jobholders). Prior to 1994, respondents were asked how much they usually earned per week. Since January 1994, respondents have been asked to identify the easiest way for them to report earnings (hourly, weekly, biweekly, twice monthly, monthly, annually, or other) and how much they usually earn in the reported time period. Earnings reported on a basis other than weekly are converted to a weekly equivalent. The term “usual” is determined by each respondent’s own understanding of the term. If the respondent asks for a definition of “usual,” interviewers are instructed to define the term as more than half the weeks worked during the past 4 or 5 months.

The BLS Current Population Survey (CPS) samples approximately 60,000 eligible households monthly to determine labor force statistics. These households are replaced over time through a rotation system to ensure a broad and current sample.

For wages, the BLS only uses 1/4 of that sample, ~15,000.

BLS data is quarterly and as good as the responses are accurate and properly weighted.

Response rates during and after Covid have proven to be problematic.

BLS Real Weekly Earnings
 

BLS Real Weekly Earnings, Chart by Mish
 

Real means inflation adjusted.

Real Percentage Changes Since 1979

• Real Total: 12.2 percent
• Real Male: 1.7 percent
• Real Female: 35.9 percent

One can cherry pick starting dates to make any case they want. But the key point is nearly the entire increase in real wages is due to increases in real wages for females.

BLS Real Weekly Earnings Detail
 

BLS Real Weekly Earnings, Chart by Mish
 

Real Percentage Changes Since 2021

• Real Total: 0.8 percent
• Real Male: 1.0 percent
• Real Female: 0.0 percent

Those are actual BLS reported numbers, not Mish calculations. The BLS uses the CPI price index 1982-1984=100 as its deflator.

The Fed prefers to use Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) as its measure of inflation.

PCE and CPI Price Indexes
 

The BLS uses 1982-1984=100 for its CPI inflation calculation.

The BEA uses 2017=100 for its PCE inflation calculation.

To compare the two, I normalized to 2017.

PCE and CPI Price Indexes Detail
 

Inflation Calculation Details Since 2021

• CPI: +23.1 percent
• PCE: +20.0 percent

ADP data starts in November of 2020 but the first full quarter is 2021 Q1, and BLS wages are quarterly. So my charts start 2021.

ADP Data

ADP Data Collection Procedures are more robust than the BLS. For discussion, please see the section ADP Technical Notes.

Pay Insights is based on the payroll data of private employers.

We track the same cohort of workers over 12-month intervals to compute each individual’s year-over-year change in pay. This matching process results in more than 14.8 million pay change observations each month. From these observations, we calculate the median year-over-year pay change for job-stayers and job-changers.

Each month, we use the payroll data of more than 13.8 million U.S. job-stayers to estimate national median annual pay change.

Salaried workers make up about 39 percent of our job-stayers sample; hourly wage workers comprise about 61 percent.

Pay Insights tracks gross pay, which includes overtime, tips, bonuses, and commissions in addition to salary and hourly wages.

If a worker holds multiple jobs during a single month, we measure the job with the highest rate of pay for that month.

BLS vs ADP Wage Sample Size

• BLS: 15,000
• ADP: 14.8 million

The BLS has a much bigger sample size by far and far better procedures. But what exactly is the BLS measuring? The BLS only counts full-time jobs.

BLS Nominal Weekly Earnings X52 vs ADP Annual Wages
 

BLS vs ADP Nominal Earnings Since 2021

• ADP Male: +8.6 percent
• ADP Female: +10.5 percent
• BLS Male: +23.0 percent
• BLS Female: +21.8 percent

To compare BLS weekly estimates to ADP annual moving averages, I multiplied BLS weekly wages by 52.

The difference is stunning. If this is solely a part-time issue, why is ADP dramatically higher in 2021 Q1?

Something is seriously wrong somewhere, possible multiple places, but the big increases in BLS nominal wages vs ADP explains why I calculated ADP real earnings as negative.

Real Median Annual Wages Are Down Over 9 Percent Since May 2021
 

Yesterday, I commented Real Median Annual Wages Are Down Over 9 Percent Since May 2021

Want to know why voters are angry? I’ll show you in pictures.

This post explains in more detail how I arrived at negative real numbers for ADP.

ADP nominal wages are up in the single digits since 2021, but the CPI is up 23.1 percent. If you want better numbers, use PCE inflation. It’s “only” up 20.0 percent since 2021.

If you prefer to believe the BLS, hooray! Real earnings are up a grand total of 0.8 percent since 2021.

Presumptions

These numbers presume you believe PCE and CPI measures of inflation are accurate.

I don’t. Do you?

Neither the CPI nor the PCE includes property taxes, or homeowners’ insurance in their measures.

Both include content insurance if your house burns down or is ripped up by a hurricane, but neither includes the house itself.

And when eating out, tips are not included. Heck, that’s an expected 20 percent of the bill.

Is Homeowners Insurance Understated in the CPI?

I discussed homeowners insurance on August 11, 2025 in Is Homeowners Insurance Understated in the CPI? Shop Around!

Our Insurance went up by $2,000. Then another $2,000. Here’s our story.

Also consider Where Do You Spend Money on Food? How Screwed Up Are the BLS Weights?

Does the BLS match your budget?

Don’t worry, Trump says “There is virtually no inflation.”

Nonetheless, he has changed his message: Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”

“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.

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