Stocks struggled even though yields barely changed yesterday – financials were responsible even though market breadth was a mixed picture. The dollar though turned sharply lower, and keeps a lid on pretty much everything apart from the precious metals (the turn to bullish is here as I told you last week would happen).

With the upcoming data – flash manufacturing and services PMIs – stocks won‘t get enough acceleration hopes fuel, but it wouldn‘t yet disprove the soft landing thesis either. Therefore when assessing the big picture, I would listen to the shrinking liquidity demonstrated by crypto downswing and USD upswing, coupled with the tired NVDA upswing that I‘m discussing in the stock market section. If a more meaningful reprieve than the intraday SPY ups and downs is to come, it could follow after Powell‘s pronouncements only.

Gold, Silver and Miners

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Precious metals upswing is proceeding right on cue – I‘d look though for silver to first digest today‘s sharp premarket gains, which would be necessary if 10y yield returns closer to 4.34%. Big picture, yields should be retreating a little before Jackson Hole, helping metals to build a stronger base.

Crude Oil

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Crude oil confirmed it wasn‘t yet returning to rosy upswing days by any means – and the setback continues as the second figure given yesterday, $78.50, gets a breakdwon attempt. I‘m looking at it to succeed, but this isn‘t the end of the crude oil run.

Copper would probably underperform silver if we compare today‘s prices with Friday‘s ones. $3.72 has good odds of holding, and $3.65 of not being approached at all this week.

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