Daily Reprieve Only

10y yield still at 4.25% was enough for tech to decently lead the S&P 500 upswing, which however didn't have bullish sectoral composition. The Friday given 4,390 resistance was certainly respected, and even if it is overcome Monday, it would be premature to say the lows are in. Just as much as gold had been declining going into the BRICS summit, yields are surging and stocks selling off as Friday‘s Jackson Hole approaches.

As befits chiefly gold with silver and to a lesser degree crude oil and copper, these would bottom faster, probably also faster than junk corporate bonds (these are another hint as to why Friday‘s S&P 500 bullish turn wasn't too convincing). Bonds are simply paying attention to the still tight Fed (saw Wednesday‘s minutes?), and don‘t act convinced we have seen the last hike of 2023.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Breaking 4,348 support won‘t probably happen, but Monday isn't about to be a wildly bullish day either. 4,390 did its job Friday, but is likely to be overcome in lighter trading. I‘m though not counting on sectoral composition turning decisively bullish – defensives wouldn't do poorly, and Nasdaq is to provide direction for the whole ES.

Gold, Silver and Miners

gold, silver, miners

Following the $15 break of $1,930, gold is stabilizing, and facing much better prospects next week than had been the case this week. Silver well above $22.20 and copper holding first $3.68 and then $3.72, concur and would prove a bit stronger than the yellow metal next week.

Crude Oil

crude oil

Crude oil put in a sharp local bottom, but given the China growth and overall uncertainty (see how HSI is doing), can be expected to consolidate the low $80s for a while longer before rising again.

More By This Author:

Yields Haven‘t Given Up
SP500 To Correct Some More
SPY, Yields Top And China

Subscribe to Monica‘s Insider Club for trade calls and intraday updates.  more

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.