Market Analysis

The USDA surveys US producers during the 1st half of June to compare if their initial planting ideas were carried out as the spring developed. Despite some cool & wet conditions in the N Plains and Mid-South, 2023’s US planting season began uneventful. Expanding April warmth revealed a developing trend by ECB producers of planting some soybeans ahead of their traditional first corn planting each year. Both corn & soybeans continued their slightly elevated US seeding advancement over the 5-year average thru May. The exception was the N Plains where its plantings remained behind their normal averages by mid-May. Warmer and drier weather prompted a late sprint in the region. However, corn & soybeans insurance planting dates may have skewed some acres into other crops or prevent plantings. Overall, only modest US seeding adjustments are expected in the upcoming acreage report. The trade’s focus will be on the US corn & soybean plantings in this week’s June acreage update. Corn’s strong cash price prompted an aggressive jump of 3.4 million acres in 2023’s March intentions to 92 million while US soybean plantings remained relatively unchanged from last year. Modest Central US shifts between corn & soybeans may have occurred because of dryness or local issues. However, this year’s slow northern plantings lowered our US corn seedings by a modest 570,000 acres to 91.43 million acres. Competition from spring wheat has us slipping ND’s bean plantings by 130,000 acres from intentions to 87.38 million. The past month’s SW rainfall reversal could switch some cotton acres to sorghum because of local cattle feedyards’ need for feedgrains. Overall, only a 310,000 decline in the US total 8 major crop plantings is expected. There have been some dramatic changes in US soybean and corn seeding from March to June in the past few years. The extremely wet 2019 Midwest spring that slashed soybean plantings, 2022’s switch to prevent plant from soybean intentions because of wet N Plains fields and 2020’s emotional Covid pandemic March intention reaction that was countered by a June corn acreage report. We don’t see any big changes in the upcoming major crop areas like most years in the recent past.

What’s Ahead

The upcoming USDA reports, dry Midwest soils & weather models forecasting more rain events have increased US grain market volatility ahead of the US July 4th Holiday. Use rallies to finalize old crop bean sales and have November marketings at 35-40%. Looking to sell final 10% of old-crop corn and 30-40% of new-crop in $5.45-60 ranges of Sept and Dec contracts.

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