Softs Report - Monday, Sept. 25

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Photo by Mykola "Kolya" Korzh on Unsplash


General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower last week in range trading. The Fed said it would keep interest rates high to fight inflation and most physical commodities got hurt with the news last week. Support came from ideas of reduced US and world production potential. Weak demand is still a problem and export demand was trimmed in the supply and demand reports. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other buyers has been good. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. However, there are also production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above-normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above-normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 81.76 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 29,701 bales, from 26,409 bales yesterday. ICEs said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 85.90, 85.20, and 84.90 December, with resistance of 88.00, 88.60 and 89.00 December.


General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week. The market has been dynamic as traders are wary about selling futures due to the hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage crops in Florida again. Hurricane Lee was the latest storm, but the track has kept it away from the southeast US. Another storm is forming in the Atlantic now to bring more risk to the start. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported by forecasts for an above-average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 356.00 and 382.00 November. Support is at 332.00, 325.00, and 322.00 November, with resistance at 347.00, 350.00, and 353.00 November.


General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week with both markets collapsing as roasters left the market and speculators sold based on the FED comments that interest rates would stay high into next year. Demand for lower quality Arabicas has improved due to the recent price strength in Robusta and as Roasters left the market. Speculators were the best sellers of news that the Fed intends to hold interest rates at high levels well into next year. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. The Brazil harvest moving quickly and this fact has pressured prices. Vietnam does not offer much Coffee in the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. Conab in Brazil said that Coffee production is now estimated at 54.4 million bags, from 54.7 million in May and 50.9 million last year. Arabica production is estimated at 38.2 million bags and 16.2 million bags of Robusta. It estimated Arabica production at 32,7 million bags of Arabica and 16.8 million bags of Robusta in May. Sources in Brazil said that the harvest is now about complete and that the crop is about 52% sold.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.440 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 155.82 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above-normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 2 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,397 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 150.00, 147.00, and 145.00 December, and resistance is at 157.00, 160.00 and 164.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2430, 2390, and 2350 November, with resistance at 2500, 2550, and 2570 November.


General Comments: New York closed higher last week as the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. London closed lower but held to the recent trading range Chart trends are mixed. The Asian dryness is the main feature. Traders are worried about the lack of Sugar exports from India. The Indian monsoon is expected to withdraw early this year and leave Sugarcane high and dry. Many growing areas have been dry, anyway. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential for this year of El Nino. Reports of offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil reports very good harvest conditions but the weather in Southeast Asia is currently dry. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2670, 2620, and 2600 March and resistance is at 2730, 2790, and 2810 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 720.00, 706,00, and 703.00 December, with resistance at 744.00, 747.00, and 750.00 December.


General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week despite ideas of tight supplies. The charts suggest that a correction has started and it is possible that futures and cash prices have gotten a little too high for the demand side of the market despite production losses seen during the growing season. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Reports of diseases in West Africa that are hurting production continue. The diseases are from too much rain falling at this time. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, The Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 5.012 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 3440 and 3250 December. Support is at 3560, 3530, and 3490 December, with resistance at 3640, 3700, and 3730 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2960, 2900, and 2810 December, with resistance at 3060, 3100, and 3130 December.

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