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DJ International Grains Council Leaves Grain Harvest Forecasts Unchanged

By Will Horner

The International Grains Council left its forecasts for global grain harvests unchanged for the 2023-24 season, saying it continues to predict the second-largest harvest on record.

grain harvests will total 2.294 billion metric tons, in a monthly report, on par with last month’s forecasts.

The figure marks an increase from the 2.266 billion tons harvested in the prior year but moderately below the 2021-22 season’s record 2.296 billion ton harvest.

The IGC lowered its forecasts for wheat production to 783 million tons from an earlier forecast of 784 million tons.

Forecasts for corn production were raised by 1 million tons to 1.222 billion tons while soybean output forecasts were lowered by 2 million tons to 396 million tons. Rice harvest forecasts were unchanged at 523 million tons.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 21

For the week ended Sep 14, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr wheat 307.7 14.0 8620.8 10406.1 3733.4 58.3 hrw 25.2 0.0 1516.4 2991.9 569.2 11.2 srw 48.2 14.0 1965.3 1857.8 703.1 47.0 hrs 94.3 0.0 3067.8 3049.7 1436.5 0.2 white 121.5 0.0 1812.2 2357.5 809.7 0.0 durum 18.5 0.0 259.0 149.1 214.8 0.0 corn 566.9 0.0 11726.7 12483.7 10398.2 145.0 soybeans 434.1 0.0 17079.0 25727.3 16125.7 0.0 soymeal 12.7 439.1 12906.1 12014.5 922.0 3359.3 soyoil 0.7 0.0 127.4 702.9 13.2 6.0 upland cotton 105.8 5.1 5485.1 7989.2 4291.3 392.0 pima cotton 0.8 0.0 58.9 102.6 28.3 1.5
sorghum -0.7 0.0 1996.7 239.6 1817.3 0.0 barley 0.0 0.0 16.1 15.5 16.0 0.0 rice 65.8 0.0 721.7 452.6 473.7 0.0 

Wheat

General Comments: Wheat markets closed mostly higher yesterday, but Kansas City Wheat prices were a little lower. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated and now Ukraine is exporting again. Ukraine has now shipped at lest three loads of grain through the Black Sea after bombing a lot of Russian ships to allow for safe passage. The Ukrainians feel it is safe enough to ship that way as a number of Russian warships and some other installations are now unable to perform due to Ukrainian bombings. The news could impact any new demand for US Wheat. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 581, 570, and 564 December, with resistance at 600, 607, and 616 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 722, 709, and 704 November, with resistance at 741, 748, and 755 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 767, 760, and 756 December, and resistance is at 791, 793, and 810 December.

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed slightly a little lower in consolidation trading. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports.

Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1583, 1573, and 1561 November and resistance is at 1615, 1629, and 1637 November.

Corn and Oats

General Comments: Corn closed a little higher and Oats were lower again yesterday, with Corn prices supported by forecasts for rain that could delay the harvest and reports of disappointing yields. The market has also been supported as farmers report no real sales or harvest near them. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The harvest is coming so moisture needs are less, and many producers report that Corn is shutting down early and that the harvest could start sooner than normal. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.

Overnight News: Mexico bought 137,160 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 477, 468, and 465 December, and resistance is at 485, 493, and 499 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 425, 419, and 410 December, and resistance is at 445, 456, and 465 December.

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher, but Soybean Oil closed lower. Ideas that yields are disappointing and reports from USDA of new sales of Soybeans provided the support. Weather forecasts call for dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1298 November. Support is at 1308, 1303, and 1298 November, and resistance is at 1346, 1368, and 1385 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 388.00 and 370.00 October. Support is at 393.00, 389.00, and 387.00 October, and resistance is at 403.00, 410.00, and 412.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6060 and 5770 October. Support is at 6000, 5940, and 5910 October, with resistance at 6220, 6380, and 6400 October.

Canola and Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday along with the price action in competing vegetable oils. Bullish traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future.. Canola was higher on Chicago price action in Soybeans as the harvest has become more active. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now to maintain crop condition. Speculators were selling as the trends are turning down again.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 717 November. Support is at 730.00, 723.00, and 714.00 November, with resistance at 754.00, 767.00, and 776.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3600 and 3460 December. Support is at 3700, 3670, and 3660 December, with resistance at 3780, 3820, and 3860 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil September 125 Dec 130 Sep 85 Sep 120 Nov October 125 Dec 130 Dec 85 Dec 120 Nov November 112 Dec 140 Dec 100 Dec 100 Nov DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 21 The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd. Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports Offer Change Bid Change Traded Oct 817.50 -10.00 Unquoted – – Nov/Dec 827.50   10.00 Unquoted – – Jan/Feb/Mar 842.50 -10.00 Unquoted – – RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports Offer Change Bid Change Traded Oct 825.00   10.00 Unquoted – – Nov/Dec 835.00 -10.00 Unquoted – – Jan/Feb/Mar 850.00 -10.00 Unquoted – – RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports Offer Change Bid Change Traded Oct 770.00 — Unquoted – – Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports  Offer Change Bid Change Traded Oct 770.00 — Unquoted – – Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia Offer Change Bid Change Traded Oct 3,700.00 — Unquoted – – Palm kernel oil, Delivered  Basis, South Malaysia Offer Change Bid Change Traded  Oct 234.00 — Unquoted – – ($1=MYR4.6928) DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 21  Soybean No. 1  Turnover: 166,692 lots, or 8.52 billion yuan Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest Nov-23 5,127 5,155 5,081 5,113 5,104 5,119 15 122,792 115,114 Jan-24 5,108 5,134 5,069 5,090 5,092 5,100 8 27,440 62,258 Mar-24 5,084 5,100 5,033 5,053 5,051 5,059 8 14,260 8,430 May-24 5,065 5,103 5,048 5,076 5,060 5,075 15 2,048 6,675 Jul-24 5,020 5,054 5,010 5,036 5,020 5,033 13 121 1,117
Sep-24 5,011 5,024 4,980 5,006 4,998 5,005 7 31 41 Corn Turnover: 559,544 lots, or 1.47 billion yuan Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest Nov-23 2,654 2,658 2,644 2,653 2,654 2,650 -4 290,779 413,947  Jan-24 2,593 2,595 2,582 2,592 2,588 2,588 0 162,002 540,598 Mar-24 2,585 2,590 2,577 2,589 2,581 2,583 2 57,995 181,427 May-24 2,605 2,610 2,596 2,607 2,601 2,603 2 16,668 140,876 Jul-24 2,600 2,604 2,593 2,604  ,597 2,599 2 31,753 74,754 Sep-24 2,598 2,604 2,596 2,603 2,598 2,599 1 347 1,307 Soymeal Turnover: 1,553,838 lots, or 60.47 billion yuan Open High  Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest Nov-23 4,413 4,422 4,319 4,351 4,404 4,369 -35 149,651 284,157 Dec-23 4,151 4,151 4,069 4,080 4,126 4,103 -23 14,058 59,703 Jan-24 3,994 3,994 3,930 3,949 3,969 3,960 -9 1,081,888 1,699,290 Mar-24 3,685 3,685 3,648 3,660 3,664 3,662 -2 7,947 64,040 May-24 3,410 3,415 3,384 3,390 3,391 3,399 8 213,420 674,241 Jul-24 3,390 3,398 3,365 3,368 3,370 3,381 11 45,642 467,378
Aug-24 3,447 3,459 3,429 3,433 3,434 3,441 7 19,322 71,347 Sep-24 3,440 3,460 3,415 3,419 3,424 3,429 5 21,910 58,315 Palm Oil Turnover: 963,234 lots, or 69.91 billion yuan Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open  Settle Interest Oct-23 7,242 7,258 7,096 7,130 7,248 7,204 -44 1,083 3,198
Nov-23 7,268 7,288 7,122 7,144 7,276 7,208 -68 24,244 46,573 Dec-23 7,302 7,320 7,150 7,150 7,306 7,238 -68 8,671 34,437 Jan-24 7,322 7,338 7,152 7,156 7,320 7,256 -64 858,711 550,258 Feb-24 7,338 7,356 7,172 7,172 7,340 7,270 -70 7,778 20,002 Mar-24 7,368 7,384 7,194 7,194 7,370 7,286 -84 5,374 16,522 Apr-24 7,382 7,394 7,204 7,204 7,382 7,300 -82 3,809 3,421 May-24 7,388 7,398 7,200 7,200 7,386 7,298 -88 53,029 86,832 Jun-24 7,370 7,380 7,200 7,202 7,378 7,286 -92 77 750 Jul-24 7,362 7,362 7,160 7,160 7,358 7,252 -106 151 800 Aug-24 7,348 7,348 7,140 7,146 7,356 7,222 -134 95 1,494 Sep-24 7,296 7,316 7,138 7,138 7,310 7,214 -96 212 402 Soybean Oil Turnover: 1,144,021 lots, or 90.95 billion yuan Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest Nov-23 8,262 8,280 8,010 8,010 8,288 8,142 -146 33,049 83,768 Dec-23 8,200 8,210 7,972 7,974 8,212 8,078 -134 2,865 32,845 Jan-24 8,084 8,092 7,840 7,844 8,086 7,964 -122 1,026,969 645,377 Mar-24 7,944 7,956 7,724 7,724 7,946 7,840 -106 2,647 30,479
May-24 7,788 7,800 7,550 7,552 7,784 7,680 -104 65,284 108,892 Jul-24 7,706 7,722 7,488 7,488 7,706 7,612 -94 9,250 114,765 Aug-24 7,722 7,722 7,496 7,502 7,712 7,610 -102 2,658 22,482 Sep-24 7,684 7,688 7,472 7,472 7,676 7,572 -104 1,299 1,730

Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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