Grains Report - Wednesday, Sept. 20

wheat field

Photo by Melissa Askew on Unsplash


General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower yesterday on the news that Ukraine was shipping grain through the Black Sea again despite the end of the deal with Russia. It has now shipped at least three loads of grain through the Black Sea after bombing a lot of Russian ships to allow for safe passage. The Ukrainians feel it is safe enough to ship that way as a number of Russian warships and some other installations are now unable to perform due to Ukrainian bombings. The news could impact any new demand for US Wheat. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russian production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated and now Ukraine is exporting again. Any export from the Danube will be difficult but is now very possible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU but this is considered to be a very expensive option for them. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 570, 564, and 558 December, with resistance at 600, 607, and 616 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 723, 709, and 704 November, with resistance at 748, 755, and 772 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 767, 760, and 756 December, and resistance is at 791, 793, and 810 December.


General Comments: Rice closed slightly higher after being lower for most of the day yesterday as the harvest gets past the halfway point. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season. Some fields are getting abandoned due to extreme heat affecting the production in a very negative way. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf Coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1583, 1573, and 1561 November and resistance is at 1614, 1629, and 1637 November.

Corn And Oats:

General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower again yesterday on reports of harvest progress and steady crop conditions. The market had expected lower crop condition ratings when the reports were released on Monday afternoon. Farmers we talk to report no real sales or harvest near them, but the harvest has been active in other areas, especially in the southern US. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. The harvest is coming so moisture needs are less, and many producers report that Corn is shutting down early and that the harvest could start sooner than normal. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 442 and 411 December. Support is at 465, 456, and 445 December, and resistance is at 485, 493, and 499 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 445, 456, and 445 December, and resistance is at 475, 485, and 493 December.


General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower again yesterday as the harvest is now underway and on ideas of weaker demand. The crop condition ratings were steady instead of lower as the trade had expected and that was negative to prices yesterday. Weather forecasts call for dry conditions and near-to below-normal temperatures for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1298 November. Support is at 1303, 1298, and 1282 November, and resistance is at 1346, 1368, and 1385 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 388.00 and 370.00 October. Support is at 389.00, 387.00, and 383.00 October, and resistance is at 396.00, 403.00, and 410.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6150, 6000, and 5940 October, with resistance at 6380, 6400, and 6480 October.

Canola And Palm Oil:

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday along with the price action in competing vegetable oils. Bullish traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future. Canola was lower on follow-through selling yesterday in response to the StatsCan production estimates that showed higher-than-expected production for the year and as the harvest has become more active. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now to maintain crop condition. Speculators were selling as the trends are turning down again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 717 November. Support is at 723.00, 714.00, and 694.00 November, with resistance at 754.00, 767.00, and 776.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3720, 3700, and 3670 December, with resistance at 3780, 3820, and 3860 December.

More By This Author:

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Grains Report - Tuesday, September 19
Softs Report - Tuesday, Sept. 19

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