Grains Report - Tuesday, September 19

wheat field

Photo by Polina Rytova on Unsplash

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 18
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Sept 18, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 14, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/14/2023 09/07/2023 09/15/2022 TO DATE TO DATE

BARLEY 0 122 0 521 1,414
CORN 642,095 625,244 549,476 1,267,339 1,147,219
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 399 0 3,594 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 47,078 134,654 8,565 181,732 56,372
SOYBEANS 393,004 373,619 521,068 766,623 915,080
SUNFLOWER 480 384 0 864 384
WHEAT 367,371 406,181 837,624 5,121,900 7,259,489
Total 1,450,028 1,540,603 1,916,733 7,342,573 9,386,444
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 17-Sep 10-Sep 2022 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 55 43 58 52
Cotton Harvested 9 8 11 10
Corn Dented 90 82 86 87
Corn Mature 54 34 38 44
Corn Harvested 9 5 7 7
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 54 31 39 43
Soybeans Harvested 5 3 4
Sorghum Coloring 85 74 83 87
Sorghum Mature 47 37 43 43
Sorghum Harvested 24 21 24 25
Peanuts Harvested 4 2 4 5
Sugarbeets Harvested 10 8 10
Rice Harvested 57 45 43 47
Oats Harvested 95 90 94 90
Barley Harvested 93 89 94 95
Spring Wheat Harvested 93 89 93 93
Winter Wheat Planted 15 7 10 10

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 20 23 28 24 5
Cotton Last Week 18 23 30 24 5
Cotton Last Year 17 22 28 29 4

Corn This Week 7 13 29 43 8
Corn Last Week 6 12 30 43 9
Corn Last Year 9 12 27 41 11

Soybeans This Week 6 12 30 43 89
Soybeans Last Week 5 10 30 46 9
Soybeans Last Year 5 10 29 45 11

Sorghum This Week 11 16 30 34 9
Sorghum Last Week 10 16 30 35 9
Sorghum Last Year 18 29 33 19 1

Peanuts This Week 3 9 35 47 6
Peanuts Last Week 4 10 34 47 5
Peaanuts Last Year 1 5 27 59 8

Pasture and Range This Week 18 21 27 27 7
Pasture and Range Last Week 16 2118 28 27 8
Pasture and Range Last Year 19 20 23 29 23

 

Wheat

General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower yesterday on news that Ukraine was shipping grain through the Black Sea again despite the end of the deal with Russia. The Ukrainians feel it is safe enough to ship that way as a number of Russian warships are now unable to perform due to Ukrainian bombings. The news could impact any new demand for US Wheat. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated and now Ukraine is exporting again. Any export from the Danube will be difficult but is now very possible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU but this is considered to be a very expensive option for them. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 584, 570, and 564 December, with resistance at 607, 616, and 626 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 725, 709, and 704 November, with resistance at 748, 755, and 772 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 770, 760, and 756 December, and resistance is at 791, 793, and 810 December.

 

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to the harvest. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season. Some fields are getting abandoned due to extreme heat affecting the production in a very negative way. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1597, 1584, and 1573 November and resistance is at 1614, 1629, and 1637 November.

 

Corn & Oats

General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower on reports of harvest progress and ideas of selling pressure from producers. Farmers we talk to report no real sales or harvest near them, but the harvest has been active in other areas and especially in the southern US. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. The harvest is coming so moisture needs are less, and many producers report that Corn is shutting down early and that the harvest could start sooner than normal. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 442 and 411 December. Support is at 465, 456, and 445 December, and resistance is at 485, 493, and 499 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 445, 456, and 445 December, and resistance is at 475, 485, and 493 December.

 

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as the harvest is now underway and on ideas of weaker demand. Weather forecasts call for dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1298 November. Support is at 1303, 1298, and 1282 November, and resistance is at 1346, 1368, and 1385 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 388.00 and 370.00 October. Support is at 389.00, 387.00, and 383.00 October, and resistance is at 396.00, 403.00, and 410.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6150, 6000, and 5940 October, with resistance at 6380, 6400, and 6480 October.

 

Canola & Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil was near unchanged as negative fundamentals now went against price strength in outside markets. It was lower today on ideas of increasing supplies available to the market. Support also came from ideas of less production in coming months due to adverse growing conditions caused by El Nino. Bullish traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future.. Canola was lower yesterday in response to the StatsCan production estimates that showed higher than expected production for the year and as the harvest has become more active. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now. Speculators were selling as the trends are turning down again.

Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 717 November. Support is at 739.00, 723.00, and 714.00 November, with resistance at 767.00, 7976.00, and 790.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3720, 3700, and 3670 December, with resistance at 3780, 3820, and 3860 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 125 Dec 130 Sep
85 Sep
120 Nov

October
125 Dec 130 Dec
85 Dec 120 Nov

November
112 Dec
140 Dec 100 Dec 100 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian pworts
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 825.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 827.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 837.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 852.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 832.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 845.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 860.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 775.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 770.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 3750.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 238.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7015)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 135,757 lots, or 6.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 5,099 5,134 5,073 5,075 5,084 5,106 22 100,072 118,914
Jan-24 5,093 5,119 5,063 5,066 5,074 5,091 17 22,964 63,384
Mar-24 5,050 5,072 5,021 5,022 5,032 5,048 16 11,434 8,850
May-24 5,059 5,081 5,035 5,037 5,043 5,057 14 1,084 6,531
Jul-24 5,023 5,036 4,998 4,998 5,007 5,013 6 165 1,112
Sep-24 4,992 5,011 4,982 4,983 4,988 4,995 7 38 56
Corn
Turnover: 576,322 lots, or 15.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,640 2,650 2,635 2,640 2,661 2,641 -20 305,652 481,227
Jan-24 2,580 2,588 2,569 2,573 2,596 2,577 -19 158,076 486,510
Mar-24 2,575 2,579 2,562 2,566 2,584 2,569 -15 49,740 167,216
May-24 2,595 2,596 2,584 2,589 2,598 2,589 -9 23,795 134,842
Jul-24 2,590 2,592 2,580 2,584 2,594 2,585 -9 38,289 72,677
Sep-24 2,591 2,594 2,585 2,588 2,597 2,589 -8 770 1,409
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,101,828 lots, or 81.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,503 4,503 4,368 4,395 4,506 4,434 -72 168,212 295,073
Dec-23 4,191 4,201 4,094 4,105 4,206 4,142 -64 16,111 59,838
Jan-24 4,027 4,031 3,925 3,941 4,036 3,972 -64 1,486,460 1,717,711
Mar-24 3,702 3,708 3,629 3,636 3,716 3,658 -58 7,389 63,836
May-24 3,417 3,424 3,361 3,368 3,418 3,386 -32 285,100 664,640
Jul-24 3,383 3,391 3,335 3,343 3,378 3,360 -18 61,390 469,040
Aug-24 3,454 3,456 3,402 3,412 3,429 3,426 -3 42,311 71,669
Sep-24 3,446 3,447 3,395 3,404 3,425 3,423 -2 34,855 55,197
Palm Oil
Turnover: 777,122 lots, or 56.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-23 7,282 7,282 7,172 7,202 7,288 7,240 -48 3,136 4,311
Nov-23 7,306 7,306 7,200 7,218 7,304 7,244 -60 18,695 48,945
Dec-23 7,332 7,334 7,240 7,252 7,346 7,280 -66 6,885 34,732
Jan-24 7,350 7,358 7,254 7,266 7,368 7,300 -68 690,710 532,126
Feb-24 7,406 7,406 7,280 7,296 7,396 7,318 -78 4,399 20,257
Mar-24 7,412 7,414 7,306 7,326 7,422 7,350 -72 1,714 16,576
Apr-24 7,430 7,434 7,320 7,336 7,444 7,362 -82 3,154 3,536
May-24 7,466 7,478 7,324 7,336 7,462 7,378 -84 47,947 87,106
Jun-24 7,430 7,448 7,328 7,328 7,460 7,376 -84 106 766
Jul-24 7,422 7,422 7,310 7,328 7,440 7,354 -86 102 771
Aug-24 7,410 7,410 7,304 7,318 7,422 7,350 -72 76 1,171
Sep-24 7,368 7,370 7,264 7,288 7,368 7,304 -64 198 282
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 958,441 lots, or 77.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,382 8,406 8,248 8,256 8,420 8,320 -100 42,575 89,223
Dec-23 8,306 8,318 8,184 8,186 8,330 8,242 -88 2,237 33,131
Jan-24 8,198 8,208 8,050 8,050 8,214 8,118 -96 847,897 631,742
Mar-24 8,050 8,050 7,908 7,916 8,048 7,970 -78 1,592 30,391
May-24 7,860 7,872 7,728 7,756 7,868 7,782 -86 56,300 106,365
Jul-24 7,768 7,780 7,644 7,678 7,770 7,702 -68 5,191 114,595
Aug-24 7,764 7,786 7,654 7,686 7,772 7,718 -54 1,813 22,325
Sep-24 7,746 7,766 7,622 7,650 7,752 7,670 -82 836 845
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.


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Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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