Photo by Trisha Downing on Unsplash
 

Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed higher last week and above strong resistance on the weekly charts in response to a reduction in ending stocks estimates from USDA. USDA found increased demand to lower ending stocks to 280 million bales from 290 million bales before. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The charts indicate that trends turned up in the second half of last week. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near-normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below-normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 88.21 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9320 March. Support is at 88.60, 87.00, and 86.00 March, with resistance of 92.00, 92.60 and 93.20 March.
 

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week after making new highs for the move. The daily harts suggest once again that the market is finding a high area. USDA estimated production at 19.8 million boxes for lower Florida, much less than recent estimates but still well above a year ago. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil until a sharp rally came to the market. That is lower Florida, much less than recent estimates but still well above a year and the rally came to an end yesterday. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 370.00, 359.00, and 354.00 March, with resistance at 287.00, 397.00, and 405.00 March.
 

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday and for the week on a lack of offers from producers as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue. The Dollar was a little higher yesterday and remains in an uptrend. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offers of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazilian producers are reluctant sellers as well. Brazil's weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil's Coffee areas. Brazil's weather is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 0.297 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 181.62 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near-normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 190.00, 185.00, and 182.00 March, and resistance is at 197.00, 200.00 and 201.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3220, 3180, and 3140 March, with resistance at 3380, 3440, and 3500 March.
 

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and the trends remain sideways on the daily charts but are trying to turn up. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rain in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2290 and 2390 May. Support is at 2260, 2230, and 2210 May and resistance is at 2340, 2410, and 2370 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 679.00 and 704.00 May. Support is at 649.00, 639.00, and 633.00 May, with resistance at 664.00, 670.00, and 695.00 May.
 

COCOA

General Comments: Both markets were sharply higher and entered the stratosphere last week. New York gained almost $1,000/ton last week and London was up over #700/ton. Price trends remain up on the daily and weekly charts. Futures have rallied sharply for the past month but exploded higher last week. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino which is threatening West African crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 4.126 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 5450, 5330, and 5230 March, with resistance at 6030, 6090, and 6150 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4350, 4300, and 4200 March, with resistance at 4840, 5000, and 5060 March.

More By This Author: