Grains Report - Friday, Feb. 9
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday on big world supplies and low world prices. The weekly export sales report released last week was not strong and the weaker sales are due to strong competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 584, 576, and 568 March, with resistance at 607, 613, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 597, 587, and 580 March, with resistance at 634, 641, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 679, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 706, 713, and 720 March.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and trends remain up again on the daily charts. USDA cut ending stocks estimates for Long Grain and All Rice by 1.0 million tons on increased export demand. No big changes were noted for the world estimates. However, the overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1879, 1913, and 2007 March. Support is at 1829, 1819, and 1801 March and resistance is at 1869, 1876, and 1888 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and made new lows for the move in response to the WASDE reports with an increase of 10 million bushels in the ending stocks estimates. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this weeke3nd but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were higher in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 429, 426, and 423 March, and resistance is at 445, 448, and 452 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 372, 365, and 361 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans was a little higher and Soybean Meal were lower in response to the USDA estimates, but Soybean Oil was higher. USDA left Brazil production estimates very high at 156 million tons and cut US export demand to push US ending stocks above 300 million bushels. The trade reacted, then had second thoughts so prices were able to recover. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1162 and 1136 March. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1152 March, and resistance is at 1207, 1223, and 1228 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 344.00, 341.00, and 338.00 March, and resistance is at 366.00, 370.00, and 373.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4520, 4490, a6nd 4450 March, with resistance at 4860, 4920, and 4980 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 578.00, 572.00, and 566.00 March, with resistance at 604.00, 615.00, and 625.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3750, and 3720 April, with resistance at 3910, 3950, and 3990 April.
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