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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed mixed to lower yesterday in response to the USDA reports that showed unchanged production and less demand. Export demand was cut by 25 million bales and ending stocks were increased by 30 million bales as the carry in was also increased slightly. Reports indicate that more showers that continue to improve crop conditions in Texas and into the Southeast this week. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue. The weather has improved, but it has been very hot. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US. There are also worried developing that the US could be moving into a mild recession after many months of superlative growth. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial. Showers are also forecast for the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.50 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 8,926 bales, from 8,926 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 172 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 81.20, 80.60, and 79.60 December, with resistance of 82.50, 83.30 and 83.50 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower and trends are still up on the daily and weekly charts. USDA showed small US and Florida production in its reports once again yesterday with only minimal changes to the production data. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida but might have factored in the production losses into the current prices. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed t up with objectives of 278.00 and 297.00 September. Support is at 265.00, 260.00, and 254.00 September, with resistance at 277.00, 280.00, and 286.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved sharply lower. The Brazil harvest is moving quickly along, but the lower prices have forced Brazil producers to store Coffee instead of selling as they hope for higher prices later in the year. Ideas are that roaster demand is improving with more Coffee and cheaper prices seen in the market now. There are reports of dry weather for the harvest in Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take much of the demand. Producers in Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement. Southeast and south Asian producers could see another tough production year this year due to the effects of El Nino, but the weather appears to be good in these areas for now. Monsoon rains have been uneven in India. Vietnam exports are right at 1.0 million tons so far this year, down 3.15% from last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 0.545 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 157.77 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 719 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 156.00, 154.00, and 151.00 September, and resistance is at 164.00, 158.00 and 170.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2480, 2460, and 2420 September, with resistance at 2650, 2670, and 2690 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on ideas of short supplies for the world market and on a weaker US Dollar. Brazil production increasing and as the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for their next crop production prospects so relief could be coming soon. More Sugar is now available to the world market and prices are reacting. Indi still has problems with current and future production potential. India will restrict imports until the first half of next year. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far so both countries might have increased production next year or they might not. India announced a higher base price for Sugar paid to farmers to help promote additional planted area. Unica in Brazil said that mills crushed 43 million tons of Sugarcane in the second half of June, up 2.2% from last year. Sugar production was 2.7 million tons, up 7.6% from last year and Ethanol production was 1.9 billion liters, down 5.6% from last year. Marketing year to date crush is now 209.5 million tons, up 12% from last year, with Sugar production 212.2 million tons, up 26% from last year and Ethanol production at 9.6 billion liters, up 6.2% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2500, 2640, and 2720 October. Support is at 2380, 2350, and 2310 October and resistance is at 2470, 2500, and 2550 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 691.00 October. Support is at 655.00, 649,00, and 639.00 October, with resistance at 680.00, 706.00, and 708.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London was lower in correction trading but as ideas of tight supplies continue. July still holds a big premium to the back months although there was some give back yesterday. The markets are both developing trading ranges now so the lack of Cocoa in the market might be part of the price structure for now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.497 million bags. ICE NY said that 172 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 838 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3240, 3180, and 3120 September, with resistance at 3320, 3360, and 3410 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2250, 2200, and 2160 September, with resistance at 2370, 2420, and 2470 September.

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