Grains Report - Friday, July 7
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WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher yesterday, with Chicago prices steady to a little higher and Kansas City and Minneapolis prices higher. The market is operating in reaction to the slight deterioration seen in the crop updates released on Monday and on ideas that the HRW harvest is getting very delayed due to too much rain. Russia seems quiet although army officers and personnel are getting purged and the Russian Wheat exports keep flowing. Canada increased its Wheat planted area on Tuesday so production ideas from that country are higher. Uncertain world weather and Russia’s political problems that exploded last week were reasons to see the stronger price action. Russian Wheat exports are continuing as if nothing happened so far, but that could change down the road, too. Rains are reported from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast, and the Midwest forecast features increasing chances for rain. The weather is still in focus around the world. Canada has been dry but is now getting some showers in parts of the Prairies.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 637, 623, and 617 September, with resistance at 681, 689, and 713 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 864 September. Support is at 824, 812, and 787 September, with resistance at 856, 875, and 889 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 871 and 907 September. Support is at 824, 817, and 807 September, and resistance is at 866, 874, and 894 September.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mostly a little higher yesterday and July closed much higher as the squeeze is back on for that month. Growing conditions are good for the new crop despite very hot conditions in southern growing areas and the overall new crop price strength has not been good so far. The weather is still good for crop development. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at least some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop.
Overnight News: The Delta should get a few showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1469, 1451, and 1431 September and resistance is at 1531, 1542, and 1554 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering. The market is at important support areas on the charts and it is possible that this support holds for the week. The weather features additional precipitation for major growing areas this week. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been week due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. Reports of dry initial development conditions were important. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is lost but that no serious damage has been done yet, but serious damage could be done to crops where the rains miss in the next few weeks. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 180,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 479, 474, and 468 September, and resistance is at 501, 509, and 513 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 445 and 477 September. Support is at 420, 413, and 401 September, and resistance is at 444, 450, and 456 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on what appeared to be speculative selling. USDA said that Soybeans planted area was just 81.5 million acres and the trade had expected something near 84.6 million acres. Off and on precipitation is forecast for the next couple of weeks but it is possible that not all areas will get beneficial rain. Big showers and storms were reported in Chicago and to the east earlier this week. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet. Damage could become severe soon if areas do not get any rain. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1428, 1383, and 1370 August, and resistance is at 1505, 1517, and 1524 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 405.00, 307.00, and 390.00 August, and resistance is at 420.00, 439.00, and 442.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6200, 6020, and 5870 August, with resistance at 6470, 6630, and 6740 August.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of reduced production in June. Ideas are that demand is generally weak, with China struggling to open its economy and India looking to Sun oil for imports at the expense of other vegetable oils. Canola was higher on Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is forecast for the Prairies. Trends are up on the daily charts in sympathy with the price action in Chicago. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. Scattered showers and rains have been reported so planting and initial growth conditions are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 755.00 and 797.00 November. Support is at 735.00, 728.00, and 723.00 November, with resistance at 764.00, 782.00, and 801.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3870, 3800, and 3700 September, with resistance at 4000, 4100, and 4250 September.
Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal.
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