Softs Report - Wednesday, June 28
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower again yesterday on reports of more showers that continue to improve crop conditions in Texas and into the Southeast this week. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue. The weather has improved, but it had been very hot. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial. Showers are also forecast for the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 71.05 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 17,051 bales, from 17,145 bales yesterday. ICE said that 4 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 171 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7500 December. Support is at 75.40, 74.20, and 73.00 December, with resistance of 78.50, 79.00 and 79.60 December.
Photo by Karl Wiggers on Unsplash
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher again yesterday and trends remain mixed on the charts. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida but seem to have factored in the production losses into the current prices. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. The latest Florida Movement and Pack report showed that inventories are now 40% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 253.00, 249.00, and 232.00 July, with resistance at 272.00, 280.00, and 290.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday in correction trading. London July was strong as the market prepares for deliveries starting the first of next week. There are reports of good rains and dry weather mixed in for Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations and that production is now being harvested and starting to get exported. The Arabica harvest has expanded and offers of Arabica from Brazil are increasing. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take much of the demand. Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement. Southeast and south Asian producers could see another tough production year this year due to the effects of El Nino, but the weather appears to be good in these areas for now.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.549 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 166.90 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 516 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 160.00, 157.00, and 154.00 September, and resistance is at 170.00, 175.00 and 177.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2670, 2610, and 2580 September, with resistance at 2800, 2840, and 2860 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower again yesterday on reports indicated that Brazil production increasing and as the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for their next crop production prospects. The Brazil production is apparently not enough to change the narrative of tight world supplies, but more Sugar is now available to the world market and prices are reacting. India will restrict imports until the first half of next year. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. The market is still hurt by good growing and harvesting conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand also has a smaller crop. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2340, 2290, and 2180 October and resistance is at 2420, 2470, and 2500 October. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 649.00, 644,00, and 616.00 October, with resistance at 672.00, 675.00, and 688.00 October.
COCOA
General Comments: London closed higher yesterday and at new highs for the move as the rally has stalled as ideas of tight supplies continue. New York closed with slight losses in consolidation trading. Reports indicate that speculators were liquidating long positions. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.562 million bags. ICE NY said that 100 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 266 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3220, 3180, and 3130 September, with resistance at 3300, 3330, and 3360 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2580 September. Support is at 2500, 2460, and 2440 September, with resistance at 2560, 2590, and 2620 September.
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