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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower last week despite reduced crop condition ratings as the trade concentrated on demand ideas. The weekly export sales report showed reduced demand once again and certified stocks have shown a sharp increase in the last few weeks. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue. The weather has improved in Texas and most growing areas are in good condition, but it had been very hot. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 74.37 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 21,271 bales, from 20,946 bales yesterday. ICE said that 147 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7720 and 7500 December. Support is at 76.60, 75.40, and 74.20 December, with resistance of 79.00, 79.60 and 81.20 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly lower last week and trends remain mixed on the charts. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. The latest Florida Movement and Pack report showed that inventories are now 40% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 258.00, 253.00, and 249.00 July, with resistance at 270.00, 280.00, and 290.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week on increasing export volumes from Brazil. Brazil offers are starting to increase and Cooxupe said that its harvest is now about 22% complete, from about 13% last year. There are reports of good rains and dry weather mixed in for Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. The Arabica harvest has started and offers of Arabica from Brazil are increasing. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take some of the demand. Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement. Southeast and South Asian producers could see another tough production year this year due to the effects of El Nino.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.546 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 168.54 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 502 noticed were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 502 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 169.00, 164.00, and 160.00 September, and resistance is at 175.00, 177.00 and 180.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2670, 2610, and 2580 September, with resistance at 2800, 2840, and 2860 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week despite tight world supplies as news reports indicated that Brazil production increased in the last half month. The Brazil production is apparently not enough to change the narrative of tight world supplies, but more Sugar is now available to the world market and prices are reacting. India will restrict imports until the first half of next year. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. The market is still hurt by good growing and harvesting conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand also has a smaller crop. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2410, 2380, and 2340 October and resistance is at 2580, 2620, and 2640 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 661.00, 649,00, and 644.00 October, with resistance at 675.00, 688.00, and 694.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week as the rally has stalled as ideas of tight supplies continue. Reports indicate that speculators were liquidating long positions. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.578 million bags. ICE NY said that 66 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts today and that total eliveries for the month are now 66 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3180, 3130, and 3080 September, with resistance at 3250, 3270, and 3300 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2460, 2440, and 2490 September, with resistance at 2500, 2530, and 2560 September.

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