WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday in response to the USDA production reports that showed much higher Winter Wheat production than the market expected. Production was higher for HRW and SRW and a little higher than trade expectations for HRS. White Winter production estimates were slightly below trade expectations. Ending stocks estimates for the current year were slightly above trade estimates but were slightly below trade estimates for next year. Weather forecasts call for warmer and drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. Canada increased its Wheat planted area on Tuesday so production ideas from that country were higher but it is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather. Uncertain world weather and Russia’s political problems that exploded last week were reasons to see the stronger price action. Russian Wheat exports are continuing as if nothing happened so far, but that could change down the road, too.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 602 and 560 September. Support is at 623, 617, and 609 September, with resistance at 665, 668, and 681 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 788 and 766 September. Support is at 787, 777, and 762 September, with resistance at 810, 831, and 856 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 843, 832, and 817 September, and resistance is at 871, 874, and 889 September.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mostly a little higher yesterday, in a positive reaction the release of the USDA reports. Futures traded lower most of the day but rebounded in late trading. USDA showed ample production and a slight increase in yields and slightly weaker demand. Trends are still starting to turn down in the markets with the weakness this week. Growing conditions are good for the new crop despite very hot conditions in southern growing areas and the overall new crop price strength has not been good so far. The weather is still good for crop development. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at least some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop.
Overnight News: The Delta should get a few showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1402 and 1317 September. Support is at 1469, 1464, and 1451 September and resistance is at 1494, 1515, and 1531 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday in response to the USDA reports that showed less yield loss than market expectations and higher US production than expected. USDA did cut yields and the trend is in the right direction, but the trade had expected a bigger yield adjustment. The end result was higher rather than lower US production potential because of the increase in planted and harvested area as seen in the June 30 reports. The weather features additional precipitation for major growing areas for the week after beneficial precipitation last week for some areas. Other areas will be missed and stress will continue in these areas. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. Reports of dry initial development conditions were important. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is lost but that no serious damage has been done yet, but serious damage could be done to crops where the rains miss in the next few weeks. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 464 and 441 September. Support is at 474, 468, and 462 September, and resistance is at 487, 502, and 509 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 393 and 365 September. Support is at 401, 395, and 387 September, and resistance is at 426, 442, and 448 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday in response to the USDA reports that showed unchanged yield estimates for Soybeans production at 52 bu/acre and a sharp decrease in export demand. The result was higher than expected ending stocks and a sharp move lower for Soybeans futures. The yield is a record and might not happen as the weather has been much less than perfect, but USDA did not see a reason to make a change at this time. Lower yields could be forecast in future reports if the overall weather situation does not improve or improves only a little. The cut to export demand was a surprise but could be true as China had had a slower economic recovery than expected and as Brazil still dominates the world market export situation. Off and on precipitation is forecast for the next couple of weeks but it is possible that not all areas will get beneficial rain. Big showers and storms were reported in Chicago and parts of the Midwest last week. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. In fact, yield ideas are probably increasing in some areas due to the recent and forecast weather but dropping in others. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 315,704 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1425, 1383, and 1370 August, and resistance is at 1490, 1505, and 1517 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 409.00, 402.00, and 397.00 August, and resistance is at 420.00, 424.00, and 426.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6320, 6210, and 6160 August, with resistance at 6590, 6620, and 6740 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower yesterday in what was called chart based selling. Ideas are that current demand is generally weak, with China struggling to open its economy and India looking to Sun oil for imports at the expense of other vegetable oils. MPOB said that June production was 1.447 million tons, up 4.6% from May. Esports were 1.17 million tons, up 8.5% from May. Ending stocks were 1,720 million tons, up 1.9% from May. Canola was higher on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is forecast for the Prairies. Trends are up on the daily charts in sympathy with the price action in Chicago and the weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 779.00, 770.00, and 762.00 November, with resistance at 814.00, 816.00, and 826.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3900, 3800, and 3700 September, with resistance at 4000, 4100, and 4250 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal.

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