New Money Bullish On Commodities? The Corn & Ethanol Report

We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction and 2-Year FRN Auction at 10:30 A.M., 7-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Waller Speech at 5:00 P.M.

green-leafed plants

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Traders are positioning ahead of tomorrow’s reaction after the USDA reports, and a busy data day, traders have the opportunity to mull over their positions before the fireworks start with the long weekend. The South American weather pattern remains favorable overall, but dry South Central Brazil to get drier. The Brazilian monsoon will continue normally for another two weeks in key safrinha corn producing states Mato Grosso & Goias, with subsoil moisture there now adequate following the dryness of early March. Mato Grosso & Goias account for 60% of total Brazilian safrinha production and avoiding yield issues there is important. Additional soaking rainfall of 2-6” is forecast in Mato Grosso into April 5th . However, developing drought in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana will not benefit from soaking rainfall into April 5th . Heat returns to MGDS/Parana this weekend. The Brazilian corn growing season is A STORY OF HAVES AND HAVE NOTS.  We are all to familiar with that reality of actual weather risk. Argentine corn & soybean harvests are moving more quickly with the absence of soaking rainfall and as temps there exist 4-8 degrees above normal. High temps in Argentina will reach into mid/upper 80’s during the remainder of this week. Crop maturation is being pushed with early harvested yield data being strong.

Were coming in lower on CBOT grains with risk aversion is in high gear, as the market adds up further losses with Bird Flu affecting dairy cattle in Texas and Kansas so far. Yesterday’s selloff was sheer panic, and when a market panic’s…. We saw what happened yesterday. New money is coming into the market and fundamentals should take hold. However, the May corn & May soybeans futures have fallen below their 50-day moving averages. Expect the energy and food sector to be bullish overall in the futures markets, as producers will be applying long and short hedges. The open interest watch had corn rising 2,573 contracts in yesterday’s trading session.Chicago wheat added 852 contracts and soybeans jumped 11,597 contracts. The big rise in soybean open interest is a surprise ahead of the USDA report. The down market and rise in soybean open interest suggests new sellers have emerged

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Commodities Open Interest Rising. The Corn & Ethanol Report
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