Corn Is The Sleeper. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.m., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Quarterly Rate Projections at 1:00 P.M., and Fed Press Conference at 1:30 P.M.

green-leafed plants

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The grains came in weaker, while the soybean complex trades higher as may palm oil futures rocketed to their best close since 2022. Traders will be closely watching the result of GASC tender for May Wheat. It is widely expected that GASG will again cancel the tender as private enterprise and landed prices below Russian fob offers. It appears that the Russian’s want GASC to seek wheat on private vs. public terms which will add additional opaqueness to the Russian market. Expect another low volume choppy trade with short covering featured in the soybean complex, where funds are excessively short soybeans and soybean meal. The flow of food commodities are front and center. Weather in South America and North America are also driving factors in seasonal of average plantings and global shipping costs with insurance

added to cost of doing business in the global export marketToday we have the Fed Decision on interest rates and April crude oil expiring. With no major changes in the South American weather all traders are anticipating US Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings before more traders are committed to their position. Keep in mind yesterday’s open interest data showed corn gained 31,000 contracts in the past two days. As the bulls and the bears slug it out it may not only be funds but new fresh money participating in the marketplace and I still remain bullish overall. Soybeans open interest jumped 6,803 contracts and soybean meal 1,063 contracts, while soybean oil fell 1,380 contracts, while Chicago wheat was down 1,163 contracts. Other than new money traders riding the bearish wave, they are wondering the jump in open interest in corn the last two days. The bulls and bears are o positioning ahead of next week’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and planting intentions. This could lead to more volatility this year as traders are NOT keeping their powder dry.


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