Forming A Base And Weather Watching. The Corn And Ethanol Report

We kicked off the day with Building Permits Prel, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts Prel, and Housing Starts MoM Prel at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows at 3:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M., International Monetary Market (IMM) Date and FOMC Meeting.

The National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index beat expectations in March, reaching an 8-month high of 51 versus 48 in February and expectations for 48 in March. Falling inventories of existing homes continue to drive home buyers to new home construction. The index is comprised of 3-sub indexes. The index for current sales rose 4 points to 62, the index for home builder expectations within 6-month rose 2 points in the Northeast at 59, the Midwest gained 5 points and the West increased to 43.

green-leafed plants

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South American weather update, The EU & GFS are in agreement in projecting welcomed rainfall worth 1.5-4.0” in Mato Grosso, Goias, and Mato Grosso do Sul March 23-29. This rain will be incredibly welcomed following abnormal heat/dryness in March. Soil moisture will be stabilized/boosted during the first stage of safrinha corn growth there. Coming rainfall in nature as the Climate Prediction Center (MJO Index) shifts slightly eastward, pushing abundant moisture into Northern Brazil. However, this pattern will only be temporary. MJO shifts west again beyond March 30th . Operational models feature the return of warmth/dryness to Brazil in the 12-15 day period. The risk of Brazilian drought remains in place, and ARC reiterates their April weather that determines safrinha corn yields most significantly. This will add interest also watching Brazilian fob sales on CBOT rallies heading into the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings. These seem to hold the key in the future.

US pattern forecast into early April has added rain/snow to the Dakota’s, IA,MN, and WI – where it is most needed – while the Western & Southern Plains stay arid. 30-day rainfall of 3-9” is needed to clear drought in MO,NE, IA, and pockets in the eastern Midwest, but any/all rain is welcomed across the N Plains and Western Corn Belt. The bulk of coming precipitation in E Plains/ W Midwest occurs March 23-26th . Central US temps will be parabolic into April 1st, but an overall pattern of below normal temps are forecasted. High temps across the principal Corn Belt will exist in the 30’s, 40’s, and low 50’s. Freezing overnight lows periodically impact all but the far southern Midwest and Delta. Early April corn seeding is now unlikely as the trends in soil temps turn down.

Monday’s CBOT corn open interest rose a sharp 20,032 contracts, while Chicago wheat was down 1,591 contracts and soybeans were off 2,262 contracts. Soybean oil open interest rose 5,722 contracts with soybean meal up 3,847 contracts. It’s difficult to explain the big rise in corn and soybean oil open interest other than new money is coming into the space selling corn and soybean oil futures in Monday’s bearish price action. We could be in for another week and a half of two-sided choppy trade.

All CME livestock markets closed higher except April lean hogs. The Smokehouse Creek Fire the largest wildfire in Texas history is 100% contained. We have yet to tabulate the aftermath of destruction that at last count destroyed over 7,000head of cattle in an already thin herd. It will be interesting to digest Friday’s Cattle On Feed data. And Finally moving into Day 1 of the FOMC meetings with decision on rates will be announce at 1:00 P.M. C.S.T. Having heard the hawkish Fed governors, I expect the Fed will stand pat and on cut rates.


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