Commodities Open Interest Rising. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We kicked off the day with Durable Goods Orders MoM, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM, and Non Defense Goods Orders Ex air at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index MoM & YoY, House Price Index, and House Price Index at 8:00 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments, and Richmond Fed Services Index at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index and Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:30 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

green grass

Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

Last week the National Association of Realtors reported that February existing home sales jumped by a stunning 9.5% from January. But compared to a year ago, sales were down 3%, marking the 31st consecutive month of year-over-tear declines. New Home Sales have been rising and helped offset some of the decrease in existing sales. The Census Bureau reported that new home sales in February eased by 0>3% from January but were 6 larger than a year ago to mark the 11th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Combined existing and new home sales amounted to 5,042 million homes in February, and 8% increase from January but a 2% decline from 2023. Total home sales bottomed in November and have moved higher as mortgage rates neared 8% and improved as rates began to ease. Rates have eased below 7% in March, which is expected to improve homeowner demand.

In this holiday shortened week we will have a lot of quarterly reports and the key to spark the ignition to spark a fire in this complex. With Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings on traders minds also going into the long weekend leaves the wildcard of South American exports and weather. We will keep you posted in any changes in the forecast. CBOT corn open interest rose 7,893 contracts, soybeans added 861 contracts, while wheat fell 2.957 contracts. The ongoing corn open interest rise is puzzling, but the weekly Commitment of Traders data shows that index funds have been expanding their net long position across a host of commodities as the US Central Bank prepares to lower rates. No major change in South America’s overall weather forecast, with estmations on Brazilian harvest is 70% complete and dry weather across Southern Brazil impacts winter corn.

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