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Lumber futures courtesy of Trading Economics.

Ignoring spikes, lumber futures are at the upper end of a channel from $442 at the low and $675 at high.

Lumber Pain North and South

Reuters reports Tariffs May Accelerate Canadian Lumber Industry’s Southward Shift.

President Donald Trump’s tariff threat could motivate more Canadian lumber producers to shift to the U.S. southern border while accelerating efforts to find new markets, industry experts said.

Levies on Canadian lumber could hit 40% if current duties of 14.54%, and Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs are added. Trump has paused tariffs on goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement until April 2.

Canada supplies about a quarter of U.S. lumber, and over the past decade, several Canadian mills have moved their operations to the U.S. South, drawn by cheaper, abundant timber and its availability on private lands as opposed to Crown land, which employs stringent harvesting policies.

“In 2004, there were only two sawmills owned by a Canadian manufacturer. Today, we have more than 50,” said Kyle Little, chief operating officer at New York-based Sherwood Lumber, which supplies over 2,000 U.S. lumber yards and manufacturers.

“Canadian companies now produce more than a third of the volume of the largest producing region in the U.S. – the U.S. South.”

Lumber Pain

The disruptions mean pain for both companies and customers.
“Even under modest growth scenarios, it’s probably closer to a decade to replace Canadian supply completely (in the U.S),” Jalbert said, flagging more short-term financial pain for the industry facing multiple challenges.

How Much to the Price of a Home?

Prices could reach $765 within weeks or months after tariff implementation, pushing the cost of a medium house to more than $10,000, said Hispanic Construction Council CEO George Carrillo.

Q: Does that factor in the shortage of labor due to deportations?
A: No, silly.

How Many Are Employed in US Lumber Industries?

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Grok AI: As of recent data, the lumber industry in the United States employs a significant number of people across various sectors such as logging, sawmills, and wood product manufacturing. Based on available information, the U.S. lumber and wood products industry directly employs approximately 471,450 people nationwide as of 2024, with employment in the sector increasing by 1.1% that year. This figure primarily reflects employment in the core lumber-related subindustries, including logging, sawmill operations, and panel production.

Historically, the broader forest products industry, which includes lumber as well as paper and packaging, employed around 937,800 people in 2020, with roughly 428,500 of those jobs tied to the wood products sector (encompassing lumber and related manufacturing). Given the more specific focus of your question on lumber industries and the slight growth trend since 2020, the current estimate of around 471,450 remains a reasonable approximation for 2025, though exact numbers can fluctuate due to economic conditions, housing demand, and policy changes.

But, Mish, those are users and loggers.

How Many Logging Jobs Are We Talking About?

Grok AI: In 2020, the American Forest and Paper Association reported that the broader U.S. forest products industry employed approximately 937,800 people, encompassing forestry, logging, wood product manufacturing, and paper manufacturing. Within this, the “Forestry and Logging” segment—most relevant to tree lumber harvesting—accounted for a smaller subset. According to IBISWorld’s “Logging in the US” market research report, updated through 2024, the logging industry alone employed around 45,000 to 50,000 workers in recent years, with a slight decline projected due to automation and labor challenges (e.g., a CAGR of -3.2% in revenue through 2024).

More specifically, the BLS estimated in 2022 that “Logging Equipment Operators” (a key occupation in lumber harvesting) numbered 33,592, representing about 9% of the broader forestry and lumber sector’s employment. However, this figure excludes other roles like truck drivers, sawyers, and support staff directly involved in harvesting. The BLS also estimated “Tree Trimmers and Pruners” at 63,700, but this group focuses more on maintenance than lumber harvesting, so it’s less relevant here.

US Winners

• US Tree harvesting companies whose value of timber just increased
• Approximately 50,000 people directly employed in logging.

US Losers

• Approximately 366,000 people (416,000-50,000) directly employed in wood manufacturing will be hurt by higher lumber prices.
• Businesses that use lumber or wood.
• People who buy anything that contains wood.

New Home Sales Plunge 10.5 Percent

On February 26, 2025, I commented New Home Sales Plunge 10.5 Percent in January From Upward Revision

Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000.

Existing-Home Sales

On March 20, 2025, I commented Existing-Home Sales Rebound 4.2 Percent from -4.7 Percent in February

Existing-home sales advanced 4.2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million.

To the direct 366,000 losers, please add another 650,000 new homes. Also factor in new cabinets, room additions , and any remodeling done by 4.26 million existing-home buyers.

Finally, please add in anyone who buys anything made out of wood, and that includes paper products.

“Detox Recession”

On March 10, I noted Trump and Secretary of Treasury Bessent Discuss the “Detox Recession”

Don’t worry, it’s just a little more pain and inflation disturbance before tariff greatness begins.

When Does Tariff Greatness Start?

I addressed that question yesterday in Trump’s Tax Hike ‘Liberation Day’ Day Begins April 2. Expect to Suffer

On Liberation Day, the price of lumber, steel, avocados, toys, literally everything is likely to increase.

Best of all, it’s country specific.

The Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the U.S., which details individual rates on particular commodities, has about 13,000 line items. The U.S. trades with roughly 200 countries. For those doing the math, that’s a 2,600,000 matrix.

How can that possibly not be great?

For discussion, please see A Clear Explanation of How Reciprocal Tariffs Will Work

Q: What do we call this?
A: Winning, silly. Anything and everything done by Trump is winning by definition.

More By This Author:

Trump’s Tax Hike ‘Liberation Day’ Day Begins April 2. Expect to Suffer
Existing-Home Sales Rebound 4.2 Percent From -4.7 Percent In February
A Clear Explanation Of How Reciprocal Tariffs Will Work