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Note that existing-homes sales are recorded at closing whereas new home sales are recorded at contract signing.

The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February

Six Key Highlights

• Existing-home sales advanced 4.2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million.
• Sales slipped 1.2% from one year ago.
• Raw sales in February were down 5.2% from last year, which was a leap year with one extra day of business
• Sales are down 32.8 percent from cycle high of 6.34 million in January of 2022.
• The median existing-home price for all housing types in February was $398,400, up 3.8% from one year ago ($383,800). All four U.S. regions registered price increases., the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
• Total housing inventory registered at the end of February was 1.24 million units, up 5.1% from January and 17% from one year ago (1.06 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, identical to January and up from 3.0 months in February 2024.

For three straight years we have seen a February bounce in existing-home sales (yellow highlights in charts).

The bounce was in January, four years ago.

The NAR may have a problem with seasonal adjustments.

Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Year Ago

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Existing-home sales are up for the 4th time in five months. This is the first time since 2021.

Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from year Ago

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Last month I said “Due to a hard comparison in February, I expect sales to go negative again next month.”

Despite a good report they did. The number to beat for March is 4.12 million.

Long-Term Perspective

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Existing-home sales are about where they were in November of 1978.

Existing-Home Sales Supply

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Despite seasonal adjustments, the data shows strong seasonal tendencies. This also implies faulty seasonal adjustments.

Closing Thoughts

Seasonal adjustments, especially for February are questionable.

February sales were mostly December or January contracts when optimism over Trump was high. Since then, economic sentiment and homebuilder traffic has soured.

Don’t expect sustained strength looking ahead.

Related Posts

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February 25, 2025: US Consumer Confidence Drops at Sharpest Pace in 3-1/2 Years

Consumers are concerned over inflation. Recession should be the bigger fear.

March 17, 2025: The Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Declines Again in March, Dismal Traffic

Homebuilder confidence is lowest level in seven months.

March 15, 2025: The Case-Shiller Home Price Index Hits Another New Record High, Thank the Fed

I have not commented on Case-Shiller for a while. Here is a batch of new charts.

Prices are high but few are buying.

Fedthink! The Fed Is Incompetent by Design and Can’t Be Fixed

On February 3, I commented Fedthink! The Fed Is Incompetent by Design and Can’t Be Fixed

The Fed destroyed liquidity in the housing market with massive QE that allowed existing owners to refinance at cheap rates fueling inflation via permanent lower mortgage rate (extra money in pockets), while screwing all potential new buyers with runaway prices and higher mortgage rates.

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