Founder, F.A.S.T. Graphs
Phone: 813-960-9600
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F.A.S.T. Graphs™ founded by Charles (Chuck) Carnevale.  The F.A.S.T. Graphs™ tool takes all the hours of manual graphing of business fundamentals and reduces it to seconds, giving you critical information in an instant. This charting tool has been used by Chuck and his family ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Analysis On Oil & Gas Stocks
Here is an analysis of Chevron (CVX), Imperial Oil (IMO) and Exxon Mobile (XMO).
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Value Investing Is A Long-Term Strategy And Should Be Judged Accordingly
Value investing works for all categories of stocks. When it is applied to growth stocks it is often referred to as GARP, which is an acronym for growth at a reasonable price.
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This Is How You Can Beat The Market Without Fail
The key to understanding and appreciating the relevance of focusing on dividend income performance over price performance is the recognition that dividends are paid on the number of shares you own.
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Investing Is Hard Enough: Here Is How To Avoid Making Obvious Mistakes
Understanding how to value a business is the key to avoiding making obvious mistakes when purchasing or selling common stocks.
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The Right Way To Value Growth Stocks: Part 3
Valuation clearly matters, in fact, valuation matters a lot. When stocks are only viewed from the perspective of price alone, the principles behind valuation are easily missed or ignored.
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Principles Of Valuation Part 2: Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get
Common stocks are certainly not as safe as treasury bonds, however, the principles behind sound valuation still apply.
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Comments

Latest Comments
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
4 years ago

Jim,

Thanks for your input. However, with all due respect, I suggest you are misconstruing what I was showing with AVP. I simply used it as an example to illustrate what a true value trap looked like. Nothing in my analysis was in reference to what might be happening with AVP going forward. However, since you brought it up, if you look closely at the FAST Graph in the article, you will notice that estimates suggest a strong recovery in 2016. On that basis, it could be argued that a recovery is in the making.

Nevertheless, to repeat and clarify; my utilization of AVP in this article had nothing to do with the company’s future. Instead, it was simply used as an example to illustrate how a company’s stock price would track a long-term trend in falling earnings, even when historical current valuations appeared reasonable.

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
4 years ago

Susan,

Please see reply to Wax above.

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
4 years ago

Wax and Susan,

I’m sorry you are finding FAST Graphs confusing. Actually, they are very simple to understand once you know what you are looking at. FAST is an acronym for fundamentals analyzer software tool. What makes this stock research tool different is that it focuses on the business behind the stock. The orange line on the graph represents a reference of intrinsic value based on widely-accepted formulas for valuing a business. The orange line is drawn by placing a multiple on each year’s earnings.

In the Pentair graph, the orange line represents a P/E ratio of 15 across the entire graph. Therefore, if the price is touching the orange line anywhere, the stock is trading at a fair value P/E ratio of 15. Conversely, if the price is below the line, it is trading at a lower P/E - and vice versa.

The black line on the graph represents monthly closing stock prices overlaid on to the graph. When the price is above the orange line, overvaluation is indicated, and when the price is below the orange line, undervaluation is indicated. Note how the price tracks earnings over the long-term, and when it gets disconnected it inevitably moves back into alignment. Since price is currently below the orange line, which represents fair value, Pentair appears undervalued with a P/E ratio of 11.2. On a live graph you would be able to point to the orange line and a pop-up would appear indicating what a fair value price would be today.

Finally, if you are interested, here is a link to a paper titled The Interpretation of the Earnings and Price Correlated FAST Graphs Made Simple that will assist you in understanding FAST Graphs.

www.fastgraphs.com/.../...aphs%20Made%20Simple....

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
4 years ago

Wall Street Jack,

Thanks for your comment, I found it interesting. However, there is a difference between a down year where the company was still profitable, but earnings were slightly lower than the previous year versus a company that is actually generating losses. Most cyclical companies will go through periods of rising and falling earnings over time. However, the strong ones will always be profitable in each and every year. In other words, the earnings of many cyclicals tend to be always positive. Frankly, like you, I would never buy a company that was producing losses.

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
1 to 4 of 4 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
CELG Celgene Corporation
CLX The Clorox Company
CVS CVS Health Corporation
LMT Lockheed Martin
PG Procter & Gamble Co.
RTN Raytheon Company

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