WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower again yesterday as the focus turned to Russia. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again. The government there said it was willing to discuss terms with the west for shipments of Ukraine grain to get safe passage, but ideas are that the terms Russia will ask for will be so onerous that they will be rejected. There was knee-jerk selling seen when the news came out, then doubts surfaced that any deal could be struck so futures closed well off the lows of the day. Those doubts were confirmed as Russia and the US both denied that anything was going to happen. Minneapolis Spring Wheat futures were higher as the weather remained bad for planting in the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both getting major heat waves and dry conditions. India has exempted Egypt from the ban and will honor previous commitments. It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons to the world market. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war and the trade is hoping for improved production in the EU to make up the difference. USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US recently due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting. Only Russia says it has a very big crop coming and many will not buy from there because of the sanctions..
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in eastern areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1115, 1107, and 1083 July, with resistance at 1175, 1209, and 1212 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1192, 1179, and 1154 July, with resistance at 1259, 1291, and 1303 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1285, 1239, and 1235 July, and resistance is at 1322, 1340, and 1412 July.

Photo by Maddi Bazzocco on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher last week on ideas of less production of US Rice this year. The planting pace is catching up to normal, but acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward. It is hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected. Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1718, 1684, and 1672 July and resistance is at 1782, 1815, and 1828 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed near unchanged on news from Russia and on a bad weekly export sales report. The government there said it was willing to discuss terms with the west for shipments of Ukraine grain to get safe passage, but ideas are that the terms Russia will ask for will be so onerous that they will be rejected. Russia and the US said on Friday that an export corridor was not unlikely to happen anytime soon if at all. There was knee-jerk selling seen when the news came out, then doubts surfaced that any deal could be struck so futures closed well off the lows of the day and July futures actually closed slightly higher. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and more of the same is expected this week. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planting intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak and has closed some cities and some ports in response. Brazil and China have reached an agreement on phytosanitary rules so that Brazil can now export Corn to China. Oats were sharply higher on bad planting conditions in the northern US and Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 755, 753, and 739 July, and resistance is at 788, 797, and 810 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 729 and 736 July Support is at 675, 658, and 644 July, and resistance is at 709, 716, and 722 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher last week and made new highs for the move and the products traded in sideways patterns. No one is sure why Soybeans rallied so much as they moved to new highs. New wires noted less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. Soybean Oil is not going to restaurants as quickly as in the past due to Covid lockdowns and Meal demand is down as well as less meat is being produced for the same reason. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much-improved planting weather this week. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market and these ideas got some confirmation last week as the economic numbers from China indicate the potential for a shrinking economy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1752 and 1806 July. Support is at 1720, 1697, and 1665 July, and resistance is at 1768, 1780, and 1792 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 428.00, 418.00, and 408.00 July, and resistance is at 436.00 439.00, and 441.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7740, 7360, and 7170 July, with resistance at 8090, 8200, and 8250 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week but closed in the middle of the weekly range. The market traded lower on Monday but recovered today. Futures are higher overall on ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The Indonesian government is now imposing a domestic reserve on exporters. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher last week. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1144.00, 1126.00, and 1122.00 July, with resistance at 1200.00, 1204.00, and 1209.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 6100, 6050, and 5830 September, with resistance at 6450, 6640, and 6760 September.