Grains Report - Tuesday, May 23
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher after trading lower much of the day. The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to wet soils from melting snow and now from reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, but this could soon change if the Spring Wheat production is not good. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Winter Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 596, 584, and 572 July, with resistance at 626, 641, and 664 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 788 July. Support is at 822, 797, and 792 July, with resistance at 840, 864, and 873 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 789 July. Support is at 798, 794, and 769 July, and resistance is at 816, 836, and 843 July.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week in response to negative weekly export sales and a rally in the US Dollar Index seen on Thursday. Some of the gains in the Dollar were given back on Friday. Cancellations came from Iraq and Japan and buying came mostly from Haiti and Canada. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop. USDA showed that the next crop is developing fast and that conditions are very good in Rice country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1649, and 1643 July and resistance is at 1706, 1733, and 1763 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and Oats closed lower yesterday, with Corn closing higher on ideas that the market was oversold. Reports of strong planting progress and less Chinese demand hurt the Corn price action. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for much of the next week and beyond. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn, so the current export sales pace has been disappointing. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 526 July. Support is at 552, 548, and 542 July, and resistance is at 582, 591, and 600 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 314 and 297 July. Support is at 310, 300, and 294 July, and resistance is at 330, 34734 and 340 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday in recovery trading from oversold conditions. Planting weather remains very good with little if any precipitation in the forecast for the next week to 10 days, Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks and the economic news might help keep Chinese imports less than expected. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. The Argentine crop is now estimated at just 21 million tons. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1300, 1288, and 1276 July, and resistance is at 1348, 1360, and 1366 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 407.00 July. Support is at 406.00, 400.00, and 394.00 July, and resistance is at 416.00, 422.00, and 425.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4560, 4440, and 4320 July, with resistance at 4900, 5060, and 5090 July.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on Chicago price action and on ideas of increasing supplies against slack demand. Ideas are that world stocks are building for vegetable oils. India recently cut its base import price and Chinese economic data released last week showed less activity than expected. In Malaysia, April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were also down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. The weekly continuation charts show that nearest futures are now close to support levels that have held the futures market since September. Canola was closed yesterday. Trends are turning down on the daily and weekly charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Scattered showers and rains are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 694.00 and 684.00 July. Support is at 701.00, 696.00, and 687.00 July, with resistance at 720.00, 735.00, and 743.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3290 and 3140 August. Support is at 3370, 3310, and 3250 August, with resistance at 3590, 3720, and 3750 August.
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