WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as the war between Ukraine and Russia continued and looked to last a long time.  The weekly export inspections report showed slow business for the US once again, but Egypt announced it was talking to the US and other countries about filling the void in the marketplace left by the lack of Ukrainian or Russian offers.  France has agreed to help supply Egypt with the lost Wheat.  This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this.  Ideas are that they will not accept.  Trends are sideways on the daily charts.  Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships.  Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited.  The US is revoking Most Favored Nation trading status for Russia.  Higher prices seem likely down the road.  Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides.  Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 1032, 995, and 961 May, with resistance at 1102, 1156, and 1164 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 1036, 1006, and 981 May, with resistance at 1106, 1156, and 1164 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1059, 1030, and 1027 May, and resistance is at 1109, 1123, and 1138 May.

Stock photos by Vecteezy

RICE

General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday along with the other grain markets as the potential for reduced fighting or an end to hostilities became the focus of the market, This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this.  Ideas are that they will not accept.  There is a lot of concern about the high costs of raising Rice and that there could be less acres planted in the US for this reason.  Trends are up on the daily charts.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in good volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  Export demand was stronger again this week, and has been stronger overall, especially for Rough Rice.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1583, 1574, and 1548 May and resistance is at 1628, 1644, and 1684 May.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday and trends remain sideways on the daily charts as Russia remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine.  This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this.  Ideas are that they will not accept.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer and already has trouble exporting it or Wheat.  The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  Crop losses in South America are noted.  The summer Corn crop in South America has been hurt by drought, but some rains are reported now.  Corn has been slow to react because the bigger crop is the Winter crop in Brazil and that is expected to be large.  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 741, 727, and 716 May, and resistance is at 770, 784, and 792 May.  Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 762 and 804 May.  Support is at 729, 720, and 694 May, and resistance is at 752, 764, and 776 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as the war in Ukraine dragged on and as supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited.  This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this.  Ideas are that they will not accept.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.  Shanghai has said it will remain open but asked office workers to work from home in a hybrid format.  The Ukraine-Russia war has supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil.  The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports.  Russia is also a major exporter of Crude Oil.  The US is now curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions but nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans.  Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina.  Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation. 

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1647, 1638, and 1634 May, and resistance is at 1698, 1739, and 1768 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 478.00, 472.00, and 468.00 May, and resistance is at 491.00 495.00, and 502.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up.  Support is at 7200, 7000, and 6820 May, with resistance at 7520, 7660, and 7680 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again on price action in outside markets and as China is closing down for Covid reasons again. The potential for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was also a bearish factor.  A Russian general said that his forces would retrench away from Kiev to the east and this was taken as a move towards peace and also facing the reality that the Russians are losing the war so far.  It is just as possible that Russia will soon launch a new and better offensive against the Ukrainians.  Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.  However, production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices.  Canola was higher on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war The Canadian Dollar moves were more important. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.  Prices are still in the latest trading range but at the top end of the range and appear poised to work higher.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1185, 1194, and 1224 May.  Support is at 1120.00, 1100.00, and 1085.00 May, with resistance at 1160.00, 1178.00, and 1188.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5600, 5530, and 5460 June, with resistance at 61090, 6170, and 6340 June.