Grains Report - Tuesday, March 28

white rice grains on brown wooden table

Photo by Pierre Bamin on Unsplash


General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on short covering tied to ideas that the world economy has passed its worst test with the banking problems. Prices are now so cheap that Russia is reportedly thinking about increasing export tariffs or halting exports for a time to rally prices. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices are still weaker. Trends turned sideways to up on the daily charts. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market were the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Prices are now so cheap that Russia is reportedly thinking about increasing export tariffs or halting exports for a time to rally prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near-record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 675, 654, and 648 May, with resistance at 712, 720, and 738 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 883 and 945 May. Support is at 843, 823, and 810 May, with resistance at 878, 898, and 904 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 882 and 888 May. Support is at 860, 846, and 833 March, and resistance is at 882, 892, and 910 May.


General Comments: Rice was mixed, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher. Trends are still up on the charts. Ideas are that some selling from producers was seen on the rally early in the session and over the weekend as well. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers to seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1832 May. Support is at 1760, 1749, and 1724 May and resistance is at 1800, 1820, and 1831 May.

Corn And Oats:

General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday as much-improved export demand continued. Demand from China and unknown destinations have greatly increased in the last two weeks. The USDA export sales report was a marketing year high and the third highest sales amount in the last 20 years. Oats were higher and trends remain up in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand could improve because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop are developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed.
Overnight News: China bought 136,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 651, 663, and 681 May. Support is at 638, 628, and 625 May, and resistance is at 649, 652, and 660 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 383 and 400 May. Support is at 367, 362, and 356 May, and resistance is at 382, 388, and 394 May.


General Comments: Soybean products were higher yesterday on speculative short covering tied to oversold conditions. The trends are still mostly down in this market. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. However, the basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keep its crushing facilities operating. Soybean export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1404 May. Support is at 1422, 1415 and 1405 May, and resistance is at 1455, 1478, and 1480 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 435.00, 422.00, and 405.00 May, and resistance is at 462.00, 454.00, and 461.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5050 May. Support is at 5150, 5000, and 4880 May, with resistance at 5500, 5600, and 5850 May.

Canola And Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher yesterday on what was reported to be speculative buying There are ideas that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has revoked some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the biofuels industry there. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia has had bad weather. Canola was higher last week along with the rally in Soybeans. There are some ideas that Canola's futures have fallen enough for now. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 733.00, 8715.00, and 700.00 May, with resistance at 761.00, 767.00, and 772.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3500, 3410, and 3320 June, with resistance at 3720, 3750, and 3850 June.

More By This Author:

Grains Report - Monday, March 27
Softs Report - Monday, March 27
Softs Report - Wednesday, March 22

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.