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Cotton

General Comments: Cotton was lower and closed at new lows for the move. Chart trends turned down again with the price action on Friday. Selling was caused in large part to the continuing banking crisis in the world as Deutsche Bank was reported to have financial problems on Friday. The move came despite a strong weekly export sales report and amid continued economic uncertainty. The weekly export sales report showed good demand and demand ideas are improving. Demand has been ramping up for the last couple of months but fell off. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of weeks. China has also started buying again from Australia after refusing imports from that country for political reasons.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near-normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and near to above-normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 74.22 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 5 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 71.70 May. Support is at 75.40, 74.00, and 72.80 May, with resistance of 77.80, 79.90 and 80.50 May.
 

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday and trends turned up in the market again. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and the conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near-normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 416 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 416 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 254.00 and 264.00 May. Support is at 245.00, 240.00, and 234.00 May, with resistance at 263.00, 269.00, and 275.00 May.

Coffee

General Comments: New York closed higher Friday and at the top end of the recent trading range and London closed much higher as trends turned up on the daily charts. Futures were a little lower for the week in New York, but higher in London. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still affecting prices. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia as the recent rally has increased offers, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again after futures prices sold off. Ideas of a big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that the production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvest progress but the volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 0.747 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 169.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above-normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 174.00, 171.00, and 170.00 May, and resistance is at 181.00, 183.00 and 185.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2200, 2210, and 2270 May. Support is at 2140, 2090, and 2070 May, and resistance is at 2210, 2240, and 2270 May.
 

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week, and the trends are still trying to turn up in both markets on the daily charts. Supplies are getting tighter to support prices. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Brazil's production is solid this year. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Unica said that Brazil mills crushed 608,290 tons of Sugarcane in the first half of March and produced 15,570 tons of Sugar and 264.6 million liters of Ethanol. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at0, 2040, and 3010 May and resistance is at 2140, 2140, and 2160 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 609.00 and 627.00 May. Support is at 591.00, 585.00, and 580.00 May and resistance is at 609.00, 612.00, and 615.00 May.
 

Cocoa

General Comments: New York closed higher again on Friday and at the top end of the weekly trading range. Trends remain up for at least the short term. The Dollar has been moving lower again. The talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid-crop production, and main-crop production ideas are not strong. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.727 million tons. Down 5.4% from last year. Those ideas changed a little over the previous weekend due to heavy rains reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 5.252 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2960 May. Support is at 2820, 2780, and 2740 May, with resistance at 2920, 2960, and 2990 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2170, 2180, and 2220 May. Support is at 2100, 2070, and 2030 May, with resistance at 2150, 2170, and 2200 May.

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