WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday despite world from President Putin of Russia that the grain deal for the Black Sea would not be extended as it is not in the interests of Russia to do so anymore. The deal expired yesterday but the move by Russia had been telegraphed into the market and a buy the rumor and sell the fact situation was the result. USDA production reports released on Wednesday showed much higher Winter Wheat production than the market expected. Production was higher for HRW and SRW and a little higher than trade expectations for HRS. White Winter production estimates were slightly below trade expectations. Ending stocks estimates for the current year were slightly above trade estimates but were slightly below trade estimates for next year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies although it will not be real hot. Canada increased its Wheat planted area on Tuesday so production ideas from that country were higher but it is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 645, 622, and 617 September, with resistance at 665, 668, and 681 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 810, 792, and 787 September, with resistance at 831, 847, and 856 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 897, 904, and 924 September. Support is at 869, 843, and 832 September, and resistance is at 900, 906, and 910 September.

Image Source: Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday and appears to be setting up a rather large trading range. This has been an extremely volatile market lately and the high volatility is expected to continue even in the range trading. USDA showed ample production and a slight increase in yields and slightly weaker demand in the supply and demand reports recently released. Growing conditions are good for the new crop despite very hot conditions in southern growing areas and the overall new crop price strength has not been good so far. There are some reports of initial harvest going on in southern areas. The weather is still good for crop development. Export demand has been uneven.
Overnight News: The Delta should get a few showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1553 September. Support is at 1512, 1500, and 1489 September and resistance is at 1556, 1564, and 1572 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower along with the price action in Wheat and on perceived good growing conditions for the Midwest. The weather features mostly dry conditions for major growing areas for the week after beneficial precipitation last week for some areas. It will be cool so additional stress is not really expected. Longer range maps also feature dry weather and the crops will need rather consistent rains after the dry period of three months before July appeared. That is when stress could reappear in the crops. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business. Brazil Winter corn is now 36% harvested, from 27% last week and 53% last year. A sideways and choppy trading pattern is possible this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 520 and 546 September. Support is at 494, 474, and 468 September, and resistance is at 520, 524, and 530 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 398, 395, and 387 September, and resistance is at 416, 426, and 442 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher yesterday, but Soybean Oil closed a little lower. Traders still doubt the USDA supply and demand forecasts from last week calling for a record yield as the weather so far has been less than perfect. Lower yields could be forecast in future reports if the overall weather situation does not improve or improves only a little. A cut to export demand seen in the recent estimates could be true as China had had a slower economic recovery than expected and as Brazil still dominates the world market export situation. Mostly dry conditions are forecast for this week and longer-range maps also indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperature are expected to be a little below normal this week. Big showers and storms were reported in Chicago and parts of the Midwest last week. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. In fact, yield ideas are probably increasing in some areas due to the recent and forecast weather but dropping in others. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. A choppy and sideways trading pattern is possible for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1425, and 1383 August, and resistance is at 1505, 1517, and 1524 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 450.00 August. Support is at 424.00, 409.00, and 402.00 August, and resistance is at 434.00, 439.00, and 442.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6320, 6210, and 6160 August, with resistance at 6660, 6740, and 6860 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday in sympathy with the overnight price action in Chicago and as traders wait for half month export data to be released by the private sources. The data was reported to be positive by the wire services. Ideas are that current demand is generally weak, with China struggling to open its economy and India looking to Sun oil for imports at the expense of other vegetable oils. Canola was higher on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is forecast for the Prairies. Trends are up on the daily charts in sympathy with the weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 793.00, 779.00, and 770.00 November, with resistance at 841.00, 857.00, and 867.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3830, 3810, and 3750 October, with resistance at 3980, 4070, and 4170 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

More By This Author:

Softs Report - Friday, July 14
Grains Report - Thursday, July 13
Softs Report - Monday, July 10