Grains Report - Thursday, July 1
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports. The stocks report showed less Wheat than forecast by the trade, but the planted area report showed more had been planted than the trade had expected. Increased area was noted for Winter Wheat and Spring Wheat. Trends turned up in the Winter Wheat markets with the news. Dry weather is still forecast for Spring Wheat areas, but Minneapolis closed lower Hard Red Winter closed a little higher. The Winter Wheat harvest is ongoing. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. There have been some rains in the region to keep the harvest pressure on the slow side but the quality seems good. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely. More rain is possible later this week, but Spring Wheat areas could get shortchanged again.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 695 September. Support is at 658, 637, and 632 September, with resistance at 687, 699, and 708 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 630, 619, and 611 September, with resistance at 655, 662, and 670 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 820, 796, and 780 September, and resistance is at 860, 864, and 870 September.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower after trading higher in reaction to the USDA reports. The plantings report showed more plated area than the industry had expected and is not generally believed in the cash market. The industry thinks that planted area is lower and perhaps much lower. The stocks report showed that there is still a lot of Rice out there. The daily charts show mixed trends. Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are currently forecast for southern US growing areas, but Louisiana and Mississippi got a tropical storm moving through this past weekend. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool, but better conditions are appearing this week. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated but it is drier now. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. World prices \were mostly a little lower last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1336, 1331, and 1311 September, with resistance at 1358, 1371, and 1380 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was sharply higher to limit up in reaction to the USDA reports that showed less planted area and less stocks than anticipated by the trade. The report was a bullish shock to the market and less planted area means that weather will need to be even better to produce top yields from now on. The increased area was primarily in the northern Great Plains and northwestern Midwest and in the Delta and Southeast. Reports of and forecasts for more cold weather in Brazil also supported the market and many US places got too much rain and others not nearly enough in the last week. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. Rains late last week and last weekend were very big in central Illinois, northern Missouri, and into Indiana and Ohio. As much as 8.00 inches fell in some locations but some areas in the northwest of the Midwest and into the northern Great Plains got much less. More was coming this week. As much as 2.00 to 4.00 inches of rain is possible, with more forecast for a few areas, mostly in central and eastern areas but also somewhat in the west. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to be dry in the near term. Hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil for Corn there. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 611 September. Support is at 579, 570, and 555 September, and resistance is at 604, 614, and 629 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 410 September. Support is at 384, 380, and 367 September, and resistance is at 391, 401, and 403 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed sharply yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed a slight reduction in planted area from the March report and was less than trade expectations. The stocks report was also less than trade expectations. Both reports were bullish shocks for the market and chart trends are now up. Reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week were negative, but some areas are now getting too much rain. Rains up to 8.00 inches were reported in parts of Missouri and Illinois and big rains fell mostly east of the Mississippi River, but also west in eastern and southern Iowa and northern Missouri. These areas are in line for more rain this week. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very little, if any, rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1471 August. Support is at 1396, 1381, and 1344 August, and resistance is at 1438, 1471, and 1481 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 388.00 August. Support is at 367.00, 361.00, and 356.00 August, and resistance is at 372.00, 389.00, and 397.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6590 and 7090 August. Support is at 6090, 5780, and 5360 August, with resistance at 6560, 6800, and 7030 August.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher yesterday in response to bullish export dater from the private sources. It was higher today on ideas that strong exports can continue. India cut its import tariffs which helped demand ideas. News that Indonesia was contemplating a reduction in the export tax was also bad for prices. The private surveyors showed more demand so far this month in reports issued on Friday. The reports provoked the stronger Friday close. Canola closed higher on Chicago price action, weather concerns, and on tight current supplies. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has backed off with the collapse in world vegetable oils prices, but supplies remain tight in the country.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 779.00, 769.00, and 766.00 November, with resistance at 814.00, 820.00, and 826.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3620 and 3720 September. Support is at 3570, 3450, and 3420 September, with resistance at 3700, 3750, and 3780 September.
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