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DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 14, 2023 1 Aug 31, 2023
WHEAT September Sep 14, 2023 72 Sep 11, 2023

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2023 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Tuesday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn Production 15,134.0 14,994 14,762-15,125 15,111
Soybean Production 4,146.0 4,139 4,056-4,218 4,205
Tuesday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn Yield 173.8 173.3 171.0-175.0 175.1
Soybean Yield 50.1 50.0 49.0-51.0 50.9
****
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2022-23
Tuesday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 1,452 1,459 1,347-1,532 1,457
Soybeans 250 256 235-270 260
2023-24
Tuesday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 2,221 2,127 1,830-2,399 2,202
Soybeans 220 213 170-255 245
Wheat 615 614 586-630 615
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Tuesday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 299.5 294.9 267.9-298.5 297.9
Soybeans 103.0 103.0 102.0-103.5 103.1
Wheat 267.1 268.3 267.9-269.5 268.3
2023-24
Tuesday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 314.0 310.3 305.0-313.8 311.1
Soybeans 119.3 118.5 116.4-120.8 119.4
Wheat 258.6 265.0 261.0-267.9 265.6

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Sep 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
23/24 22/23 21/22: 23/24 22/23 21/22: 23/24 22/23 21/22
Soybeans 220.0 250.0 274.0:168.42 170.08 153.89:401.33 370.11 360.14
Brazil na na na: 97.00 95.00 79.06:163.00 156.00 130.50
Argentina na na na: 4.60 4.00 2.86: 48.00 25.00 43.90
China na na na: 0.10 0.10 0.10: 20.50 20.28 16.40
Soyoil 1,821 1,861 1,991: 11.62 11.46 12.26: 61.61 58.70 59.26
Corn 2,221 1,452 1,377:196.19 181.66 206.59: 1,214 1,156 1,219
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.00:277.00 277.20 272.55
Argentina na na na: 40.50 23.00 34.69: 54.00 34.00 49.50
S.Africa na na na: 3.40 3.80 3.65: 16.80 17.10 16.14
Cotton(a) 3.00 4.25 4.05: 43.27 36.98 43.20:112.39 118.70 115.62
All Wheat 615 580 698:207.34 219.90 202.78:787.34 790.59 781.01
China na na na: 0.90 0.95 0.88:137.00 137.72 136.95
European
Union na na na: 37.50 35.07 31.93:134.00 134.19 138.16
Canada na na na: 23.00 25.75 15.12: 31.00 34.34 22.42
Argentina na na na: 11.50 4.50 16.00: 16.50 12.55 22.15
Australia na na na: 19.00 32.50 27.51: 26.00 39.69 36.24
Russia na na na: 49.00 46.00 33.00: 85.00 92.00 75.16
Ukraine na na na: 11.00 17.12 18.84: 22.50 21.50 33.01
Sorghum 31.0 25.0 47.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 72.0 56.0 42.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 31.0 35.0 33.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 43.2 30.3 39.7: 52.15 54.30 56.90:518.08 513.56 513.88

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections Exported by Rail – Sep 13
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN WED SEP 13, 2023 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING AUGUST 2023
————————————————————————
Aug-23 Jul-23 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 10 999 0 1,697
WHEAT HRS 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 200
WHEAT SRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SWW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 100
MEXICO
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 4 399 0 698
CANOLA 0 0 0 10,478
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 51,093
CORN YELLOW 6,525 651,130 550,943 5,725,789
CORN MIXED 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 5 499 1,897 3,395
SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
WHT SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 2,243 223,829 194,491 1,919,970
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 400
WHEAT DU 60 5,988 0 5,988
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 3,193
WHEAT HRS 873 87,121 88,219 450,171
WHEAT HRW 1,205 120,250 60,975 940,258
WHEAT SRW 382 38,123 32,731 274,628
WHEAT SWW 2 200 200 6,791
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWW=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Niki Davila 503-535-5001 Nicole.davila@usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

Wheat

General Comments:

Wheat markets closed higher yesterday in reaction to the WASDE reports that showed much less than expected world ending stocks estimates. USDA lest US ending stocks unchanged and about as expected, but the dramatic drop in world stocks caught traders by surprise and implied that a rally is possible for US Wheat sooner or later. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible due to bombing by the Russians. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU but this is considered to be a very expensive option for them. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.

Overnight News:

The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 570, 564, and 558 November, with resistance at 599, 616, and 626 November. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 709, 704, and 691 November, with resistance at 736, 755, and 772 November. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 760, 756, and 752 November, and resistance is at 787, 790, and 793 November.

Rice

General Comments:

Rice closed lower yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA increased production and also carry in stocks for the coming marketing year and ending stocks were increased as there was not enough new demand shown to absorb the significant supply increase. Trends are down on the daily charts. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. Some fields are getting abandoned due to extreme heat affecting the production in a very negative way. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is once again possible.

Overnight News:

The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1550, 1512, and 1500 November and resistance is at 1580, 1600, and 1619 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 13
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.16 15.17 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.68 15.81 0.00
Brokens 14.61 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

Corn And Ouats

General Comments:

Corn and Oats were lower yesterday in response to the USDA reports that showed greater than expected production. Yields were cut but the planted and harvested area was increased by 800,000acres to cause the production increase. It seems possible that yields will be cut more in coming reports. Expectations are for stressful weather to continue Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 474, 471, and 468 December, and resistance is at 507, 517, and 523 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 481, 477, and 456 December, and resistance is at 510, 522, and 528 December.

Soybeans

General Comments:

Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday in response to the release of the WASDE and US production reports. USDA cut yield estimates in line with trade expectations but increased planted and harvested acreage by 100,000 acres to keep production estimates higher than the trade had expected. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1330 and 1298 November. Support is at 1338, 1333, and 1324 November, and resistance is at 1373, 1385, and 1395 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 393.00, 389.00, and 387.00 October, and resistance is at 410.00, 413.00, and 416.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5770 October. Support is at 6000, 5940, and 5910 October, with resistance at 6190, 6290, and 67400 October.

Canola And Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of weaker demand and strong production. Futures were lower today. The private sources reported that the export pace is behind that of the previous month. Production ideas are strong and are helping to keep rallies in check. Canola was lower yesterday in sympathy with the price action in the outside markets and on a stronger Cnadian Dollar. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now. The StatsCan stocks report showed supplies were above trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 746.00 and 712.00 November. Support is at 747.00, 739.00, and 723.00 November, with resistance at 764.00, 790.00, and 802.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3680, 3620, and 3540 November, with resistance at 3800, 3910, and 3990 November.

DJ Malaysia Palm-Oil Exports Fell 20.38% in Sept. 1-10, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the Sept. 1-10 period are estimated to have fallen 20.38% on month to 305,594 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Sept. 1-10 Aug. 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 83,409 105,075
RBD Palm Oil 7,450 42,415
RBD Palm Stearin 25,825 42,600
Crude Palm Oil 60,415 118,710
Total* 305,594 383,795
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia’s Palm-Oil Exports Fell 9.8% in August, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports were down 9.8% on month at 1.22 million metric tons in August, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the August crop data and revised numbers for July, issued by MPOB:
August July Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,753,472 1,609,977 Up 8.91%
Palm Oil Exports 1,221,814 1,354,336 Dn 9.78%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 91,866 77,729 Up 18.19%
Palm Oil Imports 110,621 103,837 Up 6.53%
Closing Stocks 2,124,963 1,734,157 Up 22.54%
Crude Palm Oil 1,200,612 886,384 Up 35.45%
Processed Palm Oil 924,351 847,773 Up 9.03%

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 125 Dec 130 Sep
85 Sep
120 Nov

October
125 Dec 130 Dec
85 Dec 120 Nov

November
112 Dec
140 Dec 100 Dec 100 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 835.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 840.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 847.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 867.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 845.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 850.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 857.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 877.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 775.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 770.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,700.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 239.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.683)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 13

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 166,209 lots, or 8.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-23 5,215 5,215 5,183 5,199 5,246 5,194 -52 306 2,000
Nov-23 5,164 5,208 5,125 5,131 5,173 5,165 -8 126,180 121,049
Jan-24 5,160 5,177 5,105 5,109 5,145 5,140 -5 26,429 56,655
Mar-24 5,099 5,117 5,055 5,055 5,086 5,087 1 12,438 8,354
May-24 5,096 5,126 5,070 5,070 5,102 5,097 -5 721 5,675
Jul-24 5,063 5,083 5,030 5,033 5,054 5,049 -5 135 910

Corn

Turnover: 629,590 lots, or 16.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-23 2,925 2,925 2,925 2,925 2,825 2,925 100 339 3,760
Nov-23 2,661 2,661 2,632 2,649 2,656 2,646 -10 343,593 541,941
Jan-24 2,595 2,601 2,574 2,577 2,600 2,586 -14 161,556 437,354
Mar-24 2,585 2,589 2,565 2,570 2,586 2,575 -11 54,887 164,970
May-24 2,606 2,609 2,584 2,592 2,606 2,594 -12 27,565 115,721
Jul-24 2,598 2,602 2,579 2,590 2,599 2,590 -9 41,650 63,916

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,424,519 lots, or 95.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-23 4,430 4,976 4,430 4,600 4,711 4,596 -115 477 1,546
Nov-23 4,460 4,467 4,351 4,404 4,485 4,397 -88 244,494 301,671
Dec-23 4,210 4,210 4,098 4,139 4,232 4,146 -86 29,305 61,924
Jan-24 4,059 4,062 3,973 3,995 4,084 4,004 -80 1,749,566 1,755,348
Mar-24 3,758 3,761 3,683 3,688 3,779 3,712 -67 20,006 63,780
May-24 3,463 3,463 3,389 3,391 3,473 3,415 -58 294,951 596,697
Jul-24 3,410 3,410 3,345 3,345 3,425 3,369 -56 57,220 449,725
Aug-24 3,424 3,424 3,359 3,360 3,435 3,386 -49 28,500 46,115

Palm Oil

Turnover: 846,946 lots, or 62.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-23 – – – 7,378 7,378 7,378 0 0 2,005
Oct-23 7,352 7,424 7,278 7,308 7,374 7,348 -26 11,242 10,728
Nov-23 7,394 7,468 7,322 7,346 7,416 7,386 -30 25,033 51,675
Dec-23 7,426 7,490 7,348 7,366 7,440 7,408 -32 6,569 34,588
Jan-24 7,436 7,504 7,352 7,368 7,446 7,426 -20 743,640 483,654
Feb-24 7,456 7,504 7,362 7,370 7,456 7,424 -32 6,772 19,945
Mar-24 7,436 7,510 7,372 7,384 7,464 7,428 -36 4,767 16,595
Apr-24 7,442 7,510 7,376 7,388 7,464 7,434 -30 5,091 3,563
May-24 7,416 7,496 7,362 7,376 7,440 7,418 -22 41,627 75,126
Jun-24 7,414 7,446 7,350 7,372 7,394 7,402 8 481 750
Jul-24 7,380 7,426 7,328 7,356 7,368 7,374 6 597 761
Aug-24 7,362 7,410 7,314 7,342 7,348 7,352 4 1,127 1,158

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 1,228,824 lots, or 10.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 – – – 8,564 8,564 8,564 0 0 1,500
Nov-23 8,504 8,568 8,382 8,384 8,504 8,460 -44 34,272 100,642
Dec-23 8,406 8,468 8,290 8,292 8,400 8,368 -32 3,514 33,374
Jan-24 8,280 8,360 8,154 8,160 8,268 8,252 -16 1,101,621 607,535
Mar-24 8,060 8,138 7,920 7,924 8,048 8,002 -46 4,111 31,337
May-24 7,840 7,922 7,738 7,750 7,834 7,816 -18 68,267 99,166
Jul-24 7,752 7,810 7,650 7,662 7,742 7,730 -12 10,013 115,190
Aug-24 7,764 7,818 7,662 7,672 7,754 7,714 -40 7,026 22,292

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

More By This Author:

Grains Report - Wednesday, Sep. 12
Softs Report - Tuesday, September 12
Softs Report - Monday, September 11