Photo by Tina Guina on Unsplash

Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed lower last week on some long liquidation by speculators but reports of stressful conditions for US Cotton production continue. Weak demand is still a problem. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other buyers has been good. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. The heat is still extreme in the southern US and has yet to moderate. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.

Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.37 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 2,652 bales, from 2,352 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8170 and 7740 December. Support is at 84.90, 84.40, and 83.40 December, with resistance of 87.60, 89.00 and 90.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 05, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 282,946
: Positions :
: 64,973 23,019 56,372 65,226 181,801 76,660 12,811 263,231 274,002: 19,714 8,943
: Changes from: August 29, 2023 (Change in open interest: 26,608) :
: 12,535 1,322 4,728 4,948 20,364 1,645 -528 23,857 25,887: 2,751 721
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.0 8.1 19.9 23.1 64.3 27.1 4.5 93.0 96.8: 7.0 3.2
: Total Traders: 312 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 119 57 88 54 67 53 18 262 201:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week on reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil. CitrusBR last week estimated stocks were estimated at 84,745 tons for last season. This was the lowest estimate since 2012 when data collection started and stocks were estimated below 100,000 tons. Production for next year is expected to drop a bit due to weather concerns. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for products around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 356.00 and 382.00 November. Support is at 322.00, 311.00, and 305.00 November, with resistance at 333.00, 338.00, and 344.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 5, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,726 :
: Positions :
: 1,205 6,256 1,148 0 0 4,282 454 218 761 1,026 2,141 :
: Changes from: August 29, 2023 :
: -11 9 4 0 -15 167 28 -22 -7 10 41 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 53.4 9.8 0.0 0.0 36.5 3.9 1.9 6.5 8.8 18.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 7 9 4 0 0 22 . 4 9 14 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on strength in the US Dollar and ideas of weaker demand from roasters. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers. The Brazil harvest moving quickly and this fact has pressured prices. Vietnam is not offering much Coffee into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta with no offers from Vietnam in the world market due to very high domestic prices.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.450 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 152.04 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 7 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,060 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 147.00, 145.00, and 142.00 December, and resistance is at 153.00, 158.00 and 160.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2400, 2350, and 2320 November, with resistance at 2480, 2530, and 2570 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 05, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 221,533
: Positions :
: 30,050 55,919 55,275 63,127 81,444 64,007 20,731 212,459 213,369: 9,073 8,164
: Changes from: August 29, 2023 (Change in open interest: 4,721) :
: 1,555 -466 2,634 1,357 1,948 -794 565 4,752 4,682: -31 39
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 25.2 25.0 28.5 36.8 28.9 9.4 95.9 96.3: 4.1 3.7
: Total Traders: 387 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 96 106 110 105 45 28 313 289:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/05/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
137,744 68,674 81,473 2,417 6,066 2,078
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.9% 59.1% 1.8% 4.4% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
159 45 42 7 11 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
34,025 14,443 13,263 1,810 9,811 8,884
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.7% 10.5% 9.6% 1.3% 7.1% 6.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
46 17 19 14 9 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,593 1,726
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 1.3%

Sugar

General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week with most of the weakness in New York. The Asian supply situation became more pronounced this week with dry weather the main feature. Traders are more worried about the lack of Sugar exports from India than they are about actual exports from Brazil. The Indian monsoon is expected to withdraw early this year and leave Sugarcane high and dry. Many growing areas have been dry, anyway. There are also worries about the Thai production potential in this year of El Nino. Reports of increased offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil reports very good harvest conditions but the weather in Southeast Asia is currently dry. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2770 March. Support is at 2600, 2540, and 2500 March and resistance is at 2740, 2770, and 2800 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 703.00, 693,00, and 690.00 December, with resistance at 737.00, 748.00, and 754.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 05, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,251,132
: Positions :
: 198,634 65,849 298,818 401,293 758,678 249,299 79,609 1,148,043 1,202,953: 103,088 48,179
: Changes from: August 29, 2023 (Change in open interest: 50,029) :
: 29,095 280 6,989 3,877 35,736 1,644 2,861 41,606 45,866: 8,424 4,164
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.9 5.3 23.9 32.1 60.6 19.9 6.4 91.8 96.1: 8.2 3.9
: Total Traders: 254 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 36 83 72 73 43 20 235 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/05/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
99,098 42,144 67,220 3,568 9,408 2,264
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 42.5% 67.8% 3.6% 9.5% 2.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
127 36 46 4 6 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,812 3,355 5,716 913 3,273 4,748
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
33.1% 3.4% 5.8% 0.9% 3.3% 4.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
46 5 17 6 4 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,933 3,114
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.0% 3.1%

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on reports of diseased in West Africa that are hurting production. The diseases are from too much rain falling at this time. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.119 million bags. ICE NY said that 22 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 964 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3570, 3550, and 3490 December, with resistance at 3710, 3740, and 3770 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2990, 2900, and 2810 December, with resistance at 3050, 3080, and 3110 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 05, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 434,680
: Positions :
: 99,779 36,985 147,892 112,974 206,942 60,665 33,396 421,311 425,215: 13,369 9,465
: Changes from: August 29, 2023 (Change in open interest: 3,351) :
: 4,020 1,019 2,568 -4,130 -307 -93 -356 2,365 2,924: 986 427
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.0 8.5 34.0 26.0 47.6 14.0 7.7 96.9 97.8: 3.1 2.2
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 64 81 42 45 32 17 211 173:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/05/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
447,607 248,371 259,380 10,343 74,514 38,981
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 55.5% 57.9% 2.3% 16.6% 8.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
166 46 42 14 12 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
70,672 4,099 13,925 11,109 6,442 48,663
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.8% 0.9% 3.1% 2.5% 1.4% 10.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
49 5 23 16 15 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,543 1,603
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.4%

More By This Author: