Grains Report - Monday, Oct. 10

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower last week as the US Dollar moved higher. Concern about Russian intentions with the Black Sea grain export corridor continued. Russia has called for new recruits of at least 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too and as it tries to force its will on Ukraine. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected. Dry weather has affected the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 854, 849, and 829 December, with resistance at 909, 946, and 954 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 960, 927, and 896 December, with resistance at 1011, 1054, and 1129 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 959, 929, and 907 December, and resistance is at 1004, 1056, and 1066 December.

assorted food in sacks

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RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower last week as the harvest pressure continued. The weekly charts show that futures are near some big support areas. Harvest progress is now rapid in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is also at harvest with much more mixed results. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1660 and 1607 November. Support is at 1680, 1658, and 1649 November and resistance is at 1692, 1704, and 1719 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week with strength in petroleum values and despite the US Dollar rallying and concerns about low reiver levels on the Mississippi. The river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced and could be stopped soon unless the river levels improve. World petroleum values soared last week as OPEC and Russia moved to cut production in an effoft to keep prices high. The OPEC move could create a lot of new demand for Ethanol and give the processors a nice margin. The harvest comes closer in the US and it expected that harvest selling could limit any additional upside moves in the market. A sideways trend is more likely than any major moves up or down. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Initial yield reports suggest that total production could be close to the USDA September estimates but lower production is anticipated by some traders as the harvest expands and more yield reports are heard.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 665, 662, and 659 December, and resistance is at 691, 696, and 699 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 383, 369, and 364 December, and resistance is at 406, 411, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on Friday but Soybeans and Soybean Meal were both lower for the week as the US Dollar rallied and on concerns about low reiver levels on the Mississippi. The river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced and could be stopped soon unless the river levels improve. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends are still down. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1339, 1326, and 1320 November. Support is at 1349, 1333, and 1316 November, and resistance is at 1372, 1395, and 1407 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 375.00 December. Support is at 392.00, 388.00, and 381.00 December, and resistance is at 401.00 406.00, and 412.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6720 and 7080 December. Support is at 6440, 6330, and 6130 December, with resistance at 6680, 6800, and 7110 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils were higher in response to news that OPEC and Russia would curtail production in an effort to keep prices high. Futures did not trade today. That effort should result in increased demand for Ethanol and bio fuels. Palm Oil was also higher on ideas of reduced ending stocks for last month. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but the private sources reported a big increase in demand in its reports released covering last month. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. That data has been strong this month. Canola was higher last week. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 938 November. Support is at 852.00, 841.00, and 828.00 November, with resistance at 877.00, 891.00, and 894.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3620, 3560, and 3400 December, with resistance at 3920, 3960, and 4020 December.


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Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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