COTTON        

General Comments: Cotton closed lower yesterday on renewed strength in the US Dollar and trends remain down on the charts. Demand remains a question mark at this time even with the reduced harvest. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession.  Production is very short.  The harvest is appearing in the market, and the market is preparing for it with sideways to lower prices.  The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential.  It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near-normal temperatures.  The Southeast will get some heavy rains from the hurricane on Friday and Saturday.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.76 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 2,109 bales, from 2,109 bales yesterday.  ICE aid that 0 notices were posted against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 12 contracts.   USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 121,200 bales this year and 48,500 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 1,600 bales this ear and 1,600 bales next year.

Photo by Karl Wiggers on Unsplash

FCOJ 

General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday as the major hurricane that moved onshore Florida last week left extensive damage but has already been factored into the prices.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.  More showers are in the forecast for the coming days.  Florida damage is expected to be very big, with many trees lost as well as fruit lost.  Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south.     

Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above-normal temperatures.  

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 185.00, 184.00, and 179.00 November, with resistance at 196.00, 202.00, and 204.00 November. 

COFFEE 

General Comments: New York and London closed lower on what appeared to be new speculative selling.  Small offers in Arabica are reported from Brazil.  There is a threat for a third year of La Nina which could negatively affect Coffee production again next year.  Some beneficial precipitation was reported in Brazil over the weekend.  More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for the coming week.  Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely.  Some big rains were seen in Vietnam late last week.  The cash market remains strong for Arabica.   

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 0.417 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 190.43 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near-normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 217.00, 215.00, and 211.00 December, and resistance is at 222.00, 226.00, and 230.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2120 and 2020 November.   Support is at 2100, 2050, and 2010 November, and resistance is at 2170, 2190, and 2220 November. 

SUGAR                 

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday along with rallies in Crude Oil.  Crude Oil was higher on news reports that OPEC was considering a production cut to keep prices elevated.  The New York market is worried that reduced ethanol demand due to taxing policies in Brazil will force mills down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export and Crude Oil futures have been weaker recently.  The Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil, and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills.  The mills could produce much more Sugar over time due to the tax changes but so far have not produced enough to meet the demand.  The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin.  Indian White Sugar exports have so far not been enough to meet the demand.   

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below-normal temperatures.   

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1890 and 1970 March.  Support is at 1810, 1790, and 1780 March and resistance is at 1850, 1860, and 1880 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 560.00 December.  Support is at 540.00, 531.00, and 523.00 December and resistance is at 554.00, 566.00, and 572.00 December. 

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher yesterday on strength in the US Dollar and weakness in the British Pound.  Ideas of big production and uncertain demand are still around but reports from Africa indicate that demand has improved lately.  Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop but the buy side of the market might be waiting too long to extend coverage.  Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year.  Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast.  Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year.  The weather is good in West Africa.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  Ivory Coast now estimates Cocoa production at about 2.2 million tons, up about 2% from last year.  

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 5.624 million bags.   

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 2370, 2350, and 2320 December, with resistance at 2420, 2430, and 2450 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2000 and 2060 December.  Support is at 1940, 1920, and 1900 December, with resistance at 2000, 2040, and 2060 December. 

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