Grains Report - Monday, Nov. 21

assorted food in sacks

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General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower on follow through selling tied to news that a new Russia-Ukraine export agreement was reached and exports from both countries will be likely and will likely increase in volume. The weekly charts for all three markets show sideways trends but demand fundamentals remain bearish. A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks was seen in the reports last week but the increase in ending stocks was only 10 million bushels and smaller than expected. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated show showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see isolated snow. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 796, 791, and 783 December, with resistance at 834, 843, and 864 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 917, 915, and 896 December, with resistance at 945, 975, and 982 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 946, 933, and 929 December, and resistance is at 973, 983, and 993 December.

General Comments: Rice was higher Friday and trends turned mixed on the daily charts. Futures failed to move above 1800 January again this week but the weekly charts showed a positive close and the potential to finally get above that strong resistance area. It seemed that the market found some Rice this week and now has enough for current needs. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involve4d in other pursuits. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1752, and 1745 January and resistance is at 1797, 1805, and 1855 January.

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed mixed on Friday on stronger than expected weekly export sales for Corn. The weekly charts show that Corn is against resistance areas but Oat appear to be putting together a longer term bottom. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market and USDA was expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its coming WASDE reports. The Mississippi river remains low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. Some water has been falling in the basin now in the form of rain and snow so conditions should be improving but the improvement for now appears to be short term. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 661, 651, and 647 December, and resistance is at 675, 677 and 679 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 411, 426, and 435 December. Support is at 388, 385, and 376 December, and resistance is at 400, 410, and 420 December.

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on Friday but generally lower gor the week on ideas that Chinese demand will stay weak overall and that Brazil growing conditions are good and getting better. Only Soybean Meal closed with marginal gains on the weekly charts. The weekly export sales report was stronger than expected on Thursday at well over 3.0 million tons. Export demand for the US is heating up and the new demand could not come at a better time.. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China, but China has been a better buyer in the last couple of weeks. South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. Production potential is already being hurt in Argentina. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. The NOPA crush was 164.464 million bushels this month, in line with trade ideas and the second highest on record.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1407, 1402, and 1391 January, and resistance is at 1434, 1447, and 1459 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 402.00, 399.00, and 392.00 December, and resistance is at 412.00 414.00, and 417.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 6730 December. Support is at 7140, 7120, and 6960 December, with resistance at 7440, 7590, and 7750 December.

General Comments: World vegetable oils prices were lower last week. Palm Oil was closed for a holiday on Friday but closed lower for the week and turned the trends down on the charts. Futures closed higher today after a lower opening. Hopes for improved demand from China was reported to be the reason for the rally. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported so the cities are still imposing lockdowns. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was lower Friday on ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 850.00 and 818.00. Support is at 850.00, 828.00, and 820.00 January, with resistance at 8873.00, 880.00, and 894.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3750, 3670, and 3630 February, with resistance at 4010, 4120, and 4200 February.

More By This Author:

Softs Report - Wednesday, Nov. 16
Grains Report - Monday, Nov. 14
Softs Report - Friday, Nov. 11

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