WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher to limit up yesterday on reports that Russia had invaded Ukraine and were bombing major cities or near them. Higher prices seem likely down the road. Mr. Putin appears to have decided that Ukraine will be part of Russia should never been allowed to leave the Soviet Union. Ukraine appears ready to fight but will be badly outnumbered. Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides. Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters so the Wheat market could be damaged. It remains dry in the western Great Plains but some precipitation is expected.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Dry weather in southern Russia, as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies, caused a lot less production.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers in southern areas. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1009 May. Support is at 885, 854, and 834 May, with resistance at 938, 950, and 962 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1035 May. Support is at 920, 892, and 869 May, with resistance at 968, 980, and 992 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1065 May. Support is at 1004, 975, and 955 May, and resistance is at 1039, 1052, and 1063 May.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE:                                              

General Comments: Rice was a little higher after trading much higher early in the session. The early buying was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It appeared to be a combination of producer and speculative selling. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere but not real active anywhere but the business is there and is getting done despite the higher-priced offers. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Asian prices were firm last week.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1630 May. Support is at 1520, 1501, and 1491 May, and resistance is at 1549, 1573, and 1577 May.

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments: Corn closed higher after Russia invaded Ukraine. Futures were limit up in the overnight market but sold off during the day on what appeared to be some producer selling. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could b enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now. The South American agricultural areas got an inch or less of precipitation last week and more showers and rains are expected next week. Crop losses in South America are becoming more and more of a reality for the Cornmarket right now. The Soybeans harvest farther north is being somewhat delayed due to wet weather and this might affect planting of the safrinha crop in Brazil. Planted area there as well as in the US is in question due to the high costs and the lack of availability of inputs for growing a successful crop.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objective of 741 May. Support is at 682, 663, and 648 May, and resistance is at 688, 692, and 698 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 604 and 584 March. Support is at 655, 650, and 645 March, and resistance is at 7685, 694, and 702 March.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans were higher on the war between the west, Ukraine, and Russia. The war initially supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil. Soybean Oil closed higher but Soybean Meal closed lower. Soybeans closed mostly lower as well as Ukraine and Russia are not suppliers of Soybeans to the world. Farmers appeared to take advantage of the overnight rally to sell. The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans. Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina. The lose was not real strong for Soybeans but higher prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.

Overnight News:  China bought 334,000 tons of new crop US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 285,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1634, 1600, and 1581 May, and resistance is at 1675, 1700, and 1725 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 504.00 May. Support is at 454.00, 443.00, and 436.00 May and resistance is at 469.00 475.00, and 487.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 7040, 6790, and 6660 May, with resistance at 7330, 7460, and 7580 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on demand ideas and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.Canola was much higher along with Chicago and Malaysia and on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war prices have broken out higher from a trading range that started in November. The market is worried about South American production as well.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 1038.00, 1024.00, and 1013.00 May, with resistance at 1060.00, 1072.00, and 1084.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 5990, 5850, and 5710 May, with resistance at 6460, 61658, and 6700 May.