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We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases FRN’s 0 to 20 yrs. At 9:30 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 12:35 P.M., Fed Barr Speech at 1:45 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US was down 0.6% for the month in July and was 5.2% below a year ago. The index has been unchanged or lower for 29 consecutive months exceeding the 2007-2009 recession declines and marking a record number of consecutive month of declines since the Index began in 1960. It’s also the longest period of decline without an official recession being declared. The index also marked year-over-year declines for 25 consecutive months, and fell below the Covid low, to mark the lowest point since November 2016, the Obama years. The July decline was due to widespread weakness among non-financial components of the index such as a sharp decline in new orders, weak consumer expectations of business conditions, lower building permits, and hours worked in manufacturing, along with still negative yield spreads. The Conference Board expects that real US GDP growth will continue to slow 0.6% in Q3, and just 1% in Q4. Throw in price caps the economy would slow down even further and devastate your local grocers, whose profits after logistics and fresh food, and their profit margin is currently 1%. This will also cause empty shelves and cause more business’ es to go belly-up causing more panic in the food chain and also increasing the misery index.  Our problem here is we have politicians making fiscal policies when the majority of politicians have no experience in running a business. Doing the math middle-class households lost $25,000 under the current administration. Now that we covered price cap’s, tax hikes on corporations will guarantee even worse unemployment, leading us further into the abyss.

US Weather Forecast Adds Rain to East Coast Aug 29-Sep 3; Arid Pattern Impacts Ag Belt Next Two Weeks:

The major forecasting models agree that moderate to heavy rainfall returns to the eastern third of the US in the 11-15 day period, while mild temps but near complete dryness will be intact across the Plains, Midwest, and Delta refion indefinitely. The tropics will be active but storms largely stay off the eastern seaboard in the near term. The hurricane season so far has been much less impactful than previously forecast. Fortunately, extreme heat will stay anchored across southern/western Plains and Delta/southwest. Highs in mid/upper 90’s are forecast in TX, OK, KS, and AR beginning this weekend. Highs in the upper 80’s/ low 90’s spread into the principal Midwest Aug 25-29. A warm/dry early autumn is probable if hurricanes stay absent.

CBOT soybeans gained on export demand, and corn futures ended higher, the Ukrainian and Brazilian fob premiums were down slightly. Corn also recovered on enlarged old crop export disappearance. Pro Farmer’s daily yield assessments are awaited, but the market’s measuring of risk is projected to be more two-sided through the balance of the month. Importantly, corn’s bearish seasonal trend ends in late Aug/ early Sep, while Ag Resources (ARC) expects 23/24 carryover stocks to be trimmed another 25 Mil Bu amid larger exports. Export Inspections in the week ending Aug 15^th at 46 Mil Bu. Pace analysis suggests August Census exports could be 185-200 Mil Bu, vs. 105 Mil last year. The US crop was rated at 67% good-to-excellent, unchanged for a third week and vs. 61% on average in mid-August. NASS’s Aug report, this year’s yield debate will be muted and center on a range of 181.0-184.0 BPA. Exports will be offset yields. ARC wrote, be prepared for tradable lows to be scored at or prior to September first notice day.

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