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We kicked off the day with Housing Starts, Housing Starts MoM, Building Permits Prel, and Building Permits MoM Prel at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions, Prelm and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Goolsbee Speech at 12:25 P.M.

US Industrial Production has been flat for the last 2 years., and the July data showed minimal changes. July industrial production was down 0.6% in July, but it was the largest decline in 6 months. Manufacturing output makes up 80% of total production and was down 3% in July. Mining output was flat for the month, while utility generation was down 3.7%. Compared to a year ago, July production was down a slight 0.2% but marked the first annual decline in 3-months. Mining production was 1.5% less than a year ago., and utilities were down 0.!%.

Central US Weather Patterns Discussion

Models Consistent to Late August; Finishing Rain Impacts MO, IL, and WI; Drier Trend Favors Plains, Delta/Southeast: The Central US forecast is similar to recent runs, with yield–improving rainfall forecast in MO/Il over the next few hours and net drying forecast elsewhere. Rainfall accumulation Wed-Thurs, will reach .40-2.90” in the Dakotas, IA, MO, and northern IL & WI. Such rain provides enough moisture to carry crops into late summer without issues. Yet conditions into August are viewed as mixed, nationally. Ag Resources (ARC’s) tour of IA/IL suggests USDA’s yields there will be steady/slightly higher, but the question is whether expanding dryness in the south trims the very top-end of national yield potential. We are closing in on the point, let the games begin, which has the 2024/25 season more interesting in a long time. Many obstacles are in the way and must be hurdled. However, basic fundamentals will have the market seek it’s own level.

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