DEC CORN

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An “export rally” from mid-October of 25 cents (400-425) was corrected this week as harvest pressure from a record US crop, an expected record S/A crop & a sharply lower crude oil mkt all combined to force a set-back! However, exports this past 10 days have been spectacular – with 16 flash sales & Monday Inspections & Thursday Sales routinely running in excess of 1-2 mmt! As well, corn harvest is 81% in (avg-68) so hedge pressure will soon be off the mkt! It is currently consolidating in front of 2 major events – the US Election next Tuesday 11-5-24 & the Nov WASDE ON Fri 11-8-24!

NOV BEANS

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Even though bean harvest is nearly over- at 89% in (82-LY), the mkt is still under pressure as South American Weather continues to be a major headwind! US Harvest is the fastest since 2010 & this had added to the pressure as a record crop is hitting the mkt much sooner than expected! Export inspections continue to impress – yesterday at 2.393mmt! We look for a post election/harvest rally into early November! The 4 year-low level should be cheap enough to continue to attract exports globally!

DEC WHT

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The 1^st Winter Wheat conditions report of the season came in shockingly low at 38% (avg – 53%) – the lowest level in 39 years! Top producer Kansas was 38% & Oklahoma was 21% (ly-42)! Winter Wheat planting is 80% in (avg-83)! The ratings have Dec Wht up 15 cents today! A substandard WW crop & improving exports along with a spill-over rally support from corn & beans should support the upside after harvest ends!

DEC CAT

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Today, Dec Cat is correcting an overbought rally after a $16 up (174-190) since Labor Day! The contra-seasonal move is stunning in the sense that normally the cattle mkt languishes after LD W/E as the outdoor-grilling season winds down! But this fall, the Fed stepped up with its 1^st IR decrease in 4 years – .5% – & this served to inject the Cattle mkt with both domestic & export demand – which in turned energized the upmove! Last Friday’s Cattle-on-Feed Report was slightly negative with higher placements than expected but the mkt sloughed off this report – thanks to a strong cash & aggressive packer buying!

DEC HOGS

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Dec Hogs catapulted to new contract highs this morning – gaping higher to an over $2.00 gain – the beneficiary of strong cash prices & continued fund buying! Since early July, the mkt has staged a sensational $20 rally (63-83)! The recent Cold Storage Report reflected lower bellies in storage! The entire US economy has been rejuvenated by the Fed’s recent IR cut – validated by the DJI’s recent rally to record highs over 43,000! Pork demand has benefitted as well – conveniently replacing the Grilling Demand – lost after Labor Day W/E!

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