NOV BEANS

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Bearish headwinds abound since the issuance of the OCT WASDE last Friday 10-11-24! The report only lowered the bean yield incrementally – from 53.2 to 53.1 – when many expected the 3-wk hot/dry period in August to top out the yield! As well, today Crude Oil is down $3.00 – the US Dollar has rallied 300 points since 10-1-24 – needed rain has begun to fall in N Brazil – Harvest Pressure is still a major factor – & the China Stock Mkt is down 2.7% today – implying their exports could weaken thru year-end! But on the positive side, Monday Inspections were 1.575 mmt & we’ve had 8-9 flash sales in the past 10 days! We feel the mkt may test the August lows but that they will hold – and establish them as the Harvest Lows!

DEC CORN

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After rallying 50 cents since last August (385-435), Dec corn has forfeited 30 cents since 10-1-24 -due to harvest pressure, rain in Brazil, weaker crude, a stronger dollar & a weaker economic Chinese economy – the same negatives hurting the beans! But harvest pressure will soon mitigate as corn harvest passes the 50% level & exports will continue to be robust at 4-year lows – as US Corn is the cheapest anywhere!

DEC WHT

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Potential rains forecast for Russia & the SW US Plains have caused overnight selling! However, Russia’s recommended $250 tonne minimum price will eventually be an underlying bullish factor for wht prices! Beans, corn & wheat all cratered out in late August & the mkt is consolidating during harvest! Once the harvest pressure is off, exports will flow at these 4-year lows!

DEC CAT

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Since Labor Day, Dec Cat has mounted a stunning $15 rally (174-189) as domestic & export demand have surged as a result of the Fed’s aggressive .5% rate cut a few weeks ago! A buoyant economy is good for beef demand & lower rates means a lower dollar – implying more exports! This bump to demand more than replaced the lost demand suffered when the grilling-season ended! The mkt has corrected an overbought condition & lower than expected slaughter & heavy packer purchasing will feed rallies into the October Month End!

DEC HOGS

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Since mid-July, Dec Hogs have run-up $16 (62-78) – first fed by the Grilling Season Demand – the best demand period of the year! But when that waned after Labor Day, new demand emerged in the wake of the Fed’s recent interest rate reduction! Since then, the mkt has soared $7-8 in an impressive contra-seasonal move – when normally hog futures languish in a sideways pattern! Seasonal holiday demand (Thanksgiving & Christmas) will soon grip this mkt – pushing it to its April highs!

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