JULY WHT

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Who would have thought it just a mere month ago – the lowly, often beat-up wht mkt emerging as the upside leader at the CBOT! But it has happened – in a short 3 wks July Wht has moved up exponentially – rallying an impressive $1.50 (5.50-7.00)! A combination of friendly fundamentals has spawned the price explosion – wht’s sheer cheapness, dryness & freezes in Russia’s key growing areas & a bullish USDA report last Friday – reflecting lower US new crop stocks & a 9-year low global stocks! Indeed, the charts confirmed the stunning price move- registering 8-month highs on Mon! As the old commodity idiom goes, the “mkt looked so bad, it was good”!!

JULY CORN

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July Corn has been no slouch either – rallying 50 cents (425-475) since late Feb! Exports have been the main driver – running 35% over 2023! Just this morning, Mexico made a flash purchase of 400,000mt of US Corn! And planting delays this Spring have implied corn acres might shift to beans! Already, the USDA had predicted only 90MA of corn going in! Further, the WASDE last Friday was lower-than-expected in all categories – total production at 14,860 BB (2023 – 15,342) and US & Global old & new crop stocks! We are competitive with S/A prices – & the $2.00 break in corn prices since last summer has discounted the adequate supplies! And July wht’s meteoric rise has lent spill-over support! The charts have turned up- & quite possibly El Nina will morph into La Nina – spreading “hot & dry” into the corn areas this growing season! There is no margin for any “crop snafus” in the Northern Hemisphere!

JULY BEANS

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July Beans have clearly ridden the coattails of surging corn & wht mkts since the May WASDE Report last Friday at 11am! Inter-day action showed Beans having a hard time staying higher on the day while corn & wht rallied sharply! In the end, they pulled beans up to a higher close! The USDA Report reflected higher production 4.450 (4.165) & higher carry-outs in all stocks for the US & World! Finally, rain-induced weather delays favor corn acres going to beans! Their export woes have been well-chronicled – as China has bought zero beans from the US in 2024! However, the wide disparity between Conab (147mt) & the USDA (154mt) estimates for Brazil Beans  should be resolved in Conab’s favor! And the historic flooding in S Brazil continues to diminish their bean production!       

JUNE CAT

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Clearly, in the past month, June Cattle has been between a rock & a hard place – maintaining a tight trading range (172-179)! Rallies are squelched by heavier weight cattle & breaks are supported by strong seasonal demand! Today, the mkt is probing the top end of the range – up sharply over $3.00 off a strong cash mkt!

JUNE HOGS

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June Hogs recent free fall has been motivated by a record long open interest, lost demand to beef over the abating of Bird Flu fears & poor exports due to China’s recent over-production!But, all of a sudden, the contract is severely oversold & technically has retraced 50% of it $22 rally (87.50-109.50) since Jan 2! As such, it’s ripe for a short-rally-covering – but would need more positive fundamentals for this rally to extend beyond -$3-4!

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