AgMaster Report - Wednesday, June 12


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July Wht continues its roller-coaster ride – breaking $1.00 off winter wht harvest pressure, ideas of a bumper crop & rain forecast for the Black Sea – after rallying almost vertically $1.70 in only 4 wks off very dry conditions in S Russia! The mkt definitely is marching to the beat of its own drum – after totally ignoring the Brazil 20% export tax news that came out last Thur – which rallied corn & beans sharply! Also, last Friday’s news that Turkey was suspending wht imports for 4 months added to wht’s down! But today, a severely oversold July Wht contract is rallying back up over 25 cents in a long-overdue correction!


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Last Thursday, the Brazil gov’t unloaded a bombshell announcement of a proposed 20% export tax on their producers – which has them – all of a sudden – becoming very tight holders of their beans! Which of course implies better exports for the US! Beans are 87% in (84-avg) & rated a seasonally high 72% gd-ex! The mkt is anxiously awaiting the JUNE WASDE – tomorrow at 11am, the CONAB ESTIMATE on Thur & the CPI & Fed Notes on Wed at 7:30am & 1:00pm! Upcoming heat in the Midwest has prompted the mkt to add some weather premium! At month end, the USDA will issue its QUARTERLY STOCKS & ACREAGE REPORT on 6-28-24! 


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Rising temps in the Midwest in the next 2 weeks have corn futures tacking on a weather premium! As well, exports are running 30% over 2023! Last Thur, a flash sale of 152,000mt of corn to unknown was reported! Routinely, Mon inspections & Thur sales are running over 1.0 mmt! Corn is 95% in (avg-95) with a gd-ex rating of 74% – very high for this time of the year! But of course, the crops are made in July/Aug – not now! The mkt is waiting on the WASDE REPORT & CONAB the next 2 days! Todays mkt is almost $2.00 cheaper than a year ago! This price level plus robust exports & sketchy weather coming favor the upside!


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Aug cat has recovered $4.00 of its recent break – feeding off a strong cash mkt & the best demand period of the year (the grilling season) to move above the 200-day moving average! Recurring bird-flu demand concerns have been absent of late – allowing the mkt to rally close to its May Highs! With FATHERS DAY & THE 4TH OF JULY quickly approaching, the “beef aisles” in the supermarkets will be quite crowded!


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Seasonally, hogs should be trending up now but the above chart tells a different story – as July Hogs have plummeted $19 (111-92) since early April! Even though in a premier demand period, the Hog Mkt has been victimized by severe export woes – leaving the mkt oversupplied first, China stopped buying our pork long ago & now Mexico has devalued their peso – discouraging their imports of our pork as well! The mkt is grossly oversold & is certainly entitled to a correction – but it badly needs a fundamental boost – and a resumption of solid foreign trade would be a good place to start!

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