JULY WHT

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After a $1.70 rally in just 6 weeks off “hot & dry” in Southern Russia, the mkt is still grappling with the fall-out! The latest crop estimate is under 80 mmt! And the mkt has corrected $.50 off the top due to an overbought condition! July Wht is fighting headwinds from corn & beans as early benign growing conditions have pressured those two mkts! Improved exports & continued dry in the Black Sea could well result in a resumption of the uptrend with prices going back over $7.00!

JULY CORN

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Today at 3 pm will be corn’s 1^st condition report – expected to be 70-72%good-excellent! As well, planting progress is expected to be 87-89% – right on the 5-yr average! Export inspections this morning were excellent at 1.374mmt (lw-1.130) & also Spain bought 110,000mt of US Corn – first announced this morning at 8 am! The US growing conditions are quite favorable early-on but it’s a long growing season & La Nina is forecast! And serious weather issues exist in the Black Sea, Mexico & China which could raise corn exports further in 2024! They’re already running 30-35% over last year!

JULY BEANS

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A general lack of “threatening weather” has pushed the mkt lower this morning with current losses at 20 cents! The 3 pm Crop Progress Report is expected to reflect 75-77% planted – right on the 5-yr average!  The path of least resistance is certainly lower now with the crop almost fully in – amidst favorable climes & moisture! However, the mkt is plenty cheap – currently 2.40 under last summer’s high with a protracted growing season ahead! And myriad weather issues exist with our global trading partners! Exports could easily increase!

AUG CAT

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Aug Cat was the obvious beneficiary of solid Memorial Day W/E beef demand as it completed a $15 (167-182) just before the holiday W/E & has corrected ever since! However, demand fell off after that W/E, exports for this time of the year have been the lowest since 2020 & bird flu rumors continue to resurface – being a general drag on demand! Still, grilling season continues with Fathers Day & the 4^th of July dead ahead so demand could push the mkt back up to its MD highs!

JULY HOGS

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Recent downtrend momentum from the month-long $14 plummet (110-96) seems to be waning and the recent sideways action could be an indication prices are ready to bounce! Exports were up over last year & the highest since April 4! The ever-widening gap between pork & beef prices of course favors pork & could well energize a demand upsurge for pork in the supermarkets! Plus, the pork cut-out came out higher than the previous week!

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