NOV BEANS

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The mid-July $1.50 break (1430-1280) of course happened due to widespread rains & moderating temps across the Farm Belt – particularly beneficial to beans in their critical pod-setting stage! However, it also enhanced the beans export value in the global mkt – as a cheaper bid attracted 8-10 flash sales in the past fortnight! As well, the August WASDE report due out Friday at 11am is predicting a 4.238 billion bushel crop – UNDER last years 4.276 BB! And that with a backdrop 6-7 year low stocks – being exacerbated by the severe Argentine drought! It spells out easy price-rationing even with an average crop – any weather issues, and current prices are woefully too cheap!

DEC WHT

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Once the drone strikes stopped in the Russian-Ukraine conflict, Dec Wht reverted back its “bearish demand scenario” – where Russia’s record wht crop enabled them to inundate the global mkt with their cheap wheat supplies! However, wht prices are historically cheap & Russian won’t be able to continue its low-ball export program forever, and ultimately LOW PRICES WILL CURE LOW PRICES!

DEC CORN

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Dec Corn has been twice pummeled by both the USDA & Mother Nature this summer – finding support just under 5.00! First was the off-the-wall June 30 Acreage Report which predicted corn acres would increase a whopping 5.5 million acres over 2022 – second was a complete 180 turn in weather when early drought conditions morphed into plentiful rain & cooler temps! And just in time for corn’s pollination! Tomorrow comes the August WADSE REPORT – with early guesses at 15,126 BB (2022-13,730) & 175.4 BPA (2022-173.3)! Exports are beginning to return – nearly 1 MMT today at 7:30am & a flash sale Monday to Mexico! A lot of “bad news” has been dialed into the price already – we’d be very surprised to see much down from here – even with a bearish USDA tomorrow at 11am!

OCT CAT

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Oct Cat continues to be the beneficiary of extreme tightness & solid consumer demand even at current record levels! The July Inventory Report announced the lowest cattle #’s since 1961 & demand has been energized by the grilling season – still with 3-4 weeks to go – and despite the much cheaper pork alternative! Although the mkt hasn’t made new contract highs in 3 weeks, it hasn’t fallen too much off those highs either! Eventually the all-important consumer will balk – maybe after Labor Day W/E but so far he hasn’t backed off! Another supportive factor is Oct Cat’s big discount to cash with cash holding very firm at current levels!

OCT HOGS

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Oct Hogs seemed to have lost their “upside MOJO” due to a variety of factors – weaker cash & pork cut-out, higher avg weights & growing global production out of Europe & Brazil – squeezing exports! Even with pork the much cheaper meat alternative in the supermarkets, demand has been unable to hold the mkt up – as it slides to lower end of its 6-week range!

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AgMaster Report: Wednesday, August 2
AgMaster Report - Wednesday, July 26
AgMaster Report - Wednesday, July 19