Low Yields

The S&P 500 has been up for each of the last four trading days this week, and each of those closes has been a record high, but the streak is unlikely to continue today based on where futures are trading. Import Prices were just released and showed a larger than expected m/m decline (-0.4%), but in the ranks of economic reports, Import Prices isn’t at or even near the top.  The only other report on the calendar is the Michigan Sentiment report at 10 AM. Interest rates have continued to decline this week, so even if the Fed doesn’t feel like cutting rates at the moment, the market is lowering long-term rates. The 10-year yield traded to its lowest level since late March this morning while the 2-year yield was at its lowest since early April.

The haves vs the haves nots market trend continued yesterday as the S&P 50 closed at a record high and the Dow was down. If that sounds familiar, it’s because it was the fifth straight day that the S&P 500 outperformed the DJIA. That may sound somewhat extreme, but just back at the end of May, the S&P 500 outperformed the DJIA for eight days in a row, and besides that, there have been three other streaks this year where Wall Street’s equity benchmark outperformed the Main Street equity benchmark for at least five days.

Over the last month, there have been 16 trading days where the S&P 500 outperformed the DJIA daily, and looking at the post-financial Crisis period, these streaks haven’t been rare, but they’re also not particularly common. The last time there were as many days of S&P 500 outperformance over a 21-trading day period, was in May 2023, and there have only been four other periods when there were more days of S&P outperformance in a month.

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Disclaimer: Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any ...

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