More Weaker Than Expected Inflation Data

Whether through firsthand knowledge or watching any TV show or movie involving an arrest, every American is familiar with Miranda rights. While it seems like a basic principle of US law enforcement, it wasn’t until this day in 1966 that the Supreme Court ruled that every person arrested in the United States must be informed of their basic right to remain silent and have an attorney before any police interrogation can take place. Now if only a lot of other people would exercise their right to remain silent.

Futures aren’t silent this morning, and they just got a pop higher as both jobless claims and PPI came in weaker than expected. Initial jobless claims surged to the highest level since last August. PPI came in weaker than expected at both the headline and core levels. On a y/y basis, they are up 2.2% and 2.3% respectively relative to expectations for a level of 2.5%.  Based on this morning’s PPI and yesterday’s CPI, the Fed’s statement is less than 24 hours old, but it’s turning stale quickly.

With Apple’s (AAPL) move back near the top of the market cap leaderboard, we wanted to highlight the continued divide between the top three stocks in the S&P 500 and the rest. The snapshot below of our Trend Analyzer shows where each of the top three stocks in the S&P 500 – Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA) – as well as the S&P 500 Equalweight ETF (RSP) closed yesterday relative to their short-term trading ranges.  While all three of the top three closed at ‘extreme’ overbought levels (2+ standard deviations above their 50-DMAs), RSP remains in neutral territory and is down slightly over the last five trading days.  Besides that disparity, the YTD performance and 50-day moving average spreads of the top three stocks look nothing like the YTD performance and 50-DMA spread for RSP.

The charts of the top three also look much different than RSP (and it’s not just because we shaded RSP in gray).  As shown below, all three of the largest stocks hit all-time highs yesterday while RSP has been stuck in a range since the peak in March.


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Disclaimer: Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any ...

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