Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index, VMT, Early Benchmark NFP
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Coincident index growth slows from 4.1% m/m AR to 1.7% in February.
Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), vehicle miles traveled (tan), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2], Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q4 3rd release, and author’s calculations.
No apparent recession start as of February preliminary data, but retail sales look somewhat pessimistic.
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