Why Two Inflation Reports Left BTC Flat?

Key Summary

• Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $63,558.45 at 6:30 a.m. ET on 13 August 2026 (Fortune), after settling at $63,402 on 12 August, a dip of 0.24% (Rio Times).

• The Federal Reserve has held its key rate at 3.50%–3.75%.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $7.8 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT (Rio Times).

• BTC remains roughly 27% lower since the start of 2026 and about 49% below its October 2025 record of $126,080.

What are the Key Reasons / Price Drivers

Inflation Data Landed and Nothing Happened

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July CPI at +0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, with core at 2.5%. CPI, the Consumer Price Index, measures the average change in prices households pay. July PPI, the Producer Price Index, which tracks wholesale prices came in flat. As Rio Times put it, an in-line inflation reading removed a tail risk but gave BTC little reason to rally.

Summer Illiquidity Is Compressing Volatility

Thin trading volumes magnify how little conviction is in the market. Jeff Anderson, managing director at STS Digital, said implied volatility sits "in their 1st percentile" while traders wait on unresolved catalysts.

Rates Remain the Dominant Macro Variable

Higher interest rates raise the return on cash and government bonds, which tends to reduce appetite for assets that generate no yield. With the Fed holding at 3.50%–3.75% and CME FedWatch showing roughly a 64% probability of another hold in September (Kiplinger), the liquidity backdrop has stayed restrictive. Anderson identified the Fed's next move and the fate of the Clarity Act as the catalysts the market awaits.

Institutional Plumbing Keeps Building

Goldman Sachs agreed to acquire ETF manager NEOS for $2.25 billion, a deal including roughly $1 billion in a Bitcoin covered-call fund (Rio Times).

"Bitcoin enters August rangebound after five weeks of sideways trading which has pinned the market in a narrow band between 62k and 66k. Conviction is thin on both sides as summer illiquidity reigns supreme with attention focused on AI."

--said Jeff Anderson, Managing Director, STS Digital, speaking to Forbes

Beginners should note that crypto trades 24/7 and can move sharply outside traditional market hours. The next jobs report and the September CPI release still ahead.

BTC Market Outlook

TC is rangebound between roughly $62,500 and $65,500. Momentum is soft: the daily RSI sits in the 43–49.6 band — below the 50 midpoint that typically separates bullish from bearish regimes — while the weekly RSI near 39.8 points to weak longer-term momentum without reaching oversold territory.