Whither Goest the VIX and the SPY?

SPX Monitoring purposes; Short SPX on 4/21/20 at 2736.56

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 4/9/20 at 28.96.

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Flat

We were thinking at one point that Friday’s high could be tested. With Tuesday’s decline breaking the lows of the last five days, Friday’s test is unlikely. Tuesday’s decline broke below the last five days on near equal volume, which implies a valid break. SPY also closed below it 10 day average along with a high VIX close all of which suggests the down move may continue. Next area of support comes in at the April 6 gap level near 255 on the SPY. Short SPX on 4/21/20 at 2736.56. 

The Top window is the McClellan Oscillator which will close around -15 today and below “0” and a bearish sign. Next window down is the NYSE Down Volume /NYSE Total volume ratio. This ratio shows that down volume compared to total volume has been increasing since April 13 which in turn is showing traders on hitting on the sell button. The third window up from the bottom is the NYSE Up Volume/NYSE Total volume ratio. This ratio is falling since April 13 showing that traders are backing away from the buy side. Wednesday the SPY closed below its 10 day moving average which shows momentum may be turning down. Wednesday the SPY did gap down and some times the gap is tested before moving lower. There is also a gap on 4/6/20 near 255 which for now is a possible downside target. 

The chart above looks at the internal strength for GDX. Tuesday we looked at the daily internals and the above chart is the weekly internals.The bottom window is the weekly cumulative advance/decline percent. GDX is back at the old highs and resistance near 31.00 and the weekly Cumulative advance/Decline has is rising and making higher highs and a bullish divergence and suggest the 31.00 resistance level may give way. Next window up is the weekly cumulative up down volume percent which is also rising and making higher highs and suggests the 31.00 level may fall. So far GDX has not back away form the 31.00 resistance level. If a market doesn’t back away from a resistance level, it will eventually eat through the resistance.There is still a possibility market could retrace back to support near 26.00 range before break the 31.00 resistance but the weekly chart suggests the 31.00 will give way. Long GDX on 4/9/20 at 28.96.